From day zero to El Niño, the next drought could be worse than we think

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DUDUZILE RAMELA: From persistent rains to potential hot and dry weather conditions. El Niño has been on almost everybody’s lips. The phenomenon is expected to pronounce itself in the 2026/27 summer season in South Africa.

Alarm bells are being rung about drought, water security and agricultural resilience as a result.

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Karen King is the climate resilience director at Atana, and is standing by to speak to us about South Africa’s preparedness for a potential El Niño-driven drought.

We’ve been here before, most recently in 2023/24. How did we fare then in assessing our preparedness today? Good day to you.

KAREN KING: Hi. Thank you very much. The South African Weather Service is warning of a very likely return to El Niño conditions and a possible what they’re calling ‘super El Niño’. So in respect of weather, we’ll experience severe drought as a result.

El Niño is quite predictable at a macro level. So we should definitely heed the warning of a return to El Niño conditions lasting through at least the end of next summer.

Having said that, El Niño drought conditions in South Africa occur when trade winds weaken – or significantly weaken in the case of a super El Niño, which is a natural process, and when the surface water in the Pacific Ocean warms, or warms significantly in the case of a super El Niño, which is a human-induced change.

This is clearly a very large-scale global phenomenon. Its intensity and its localised damage impacts are still highly variable and very difficult to predict.

But while we can’t predict exactly which areas will be affected and when, we definitely should be better prepared for all coming drought conditions.

Drought is often the climate risk we underestimate. Because drought unfolds gradually we often respond to it too late. We feel as if we have time to adapt.

And, unlike something like flooding, drought’s slow onset period creates this false sense of security. Its impacts, however, are every bit as destructive and they accumulate over time through water shortages, through declining agricultural production, through rising food prices and pressures on local economies.

So we’re underprepared and we really need to take it seriously.

DUDUZILE RAMELA Pshew. Underprepared? So we didn’t learn our lessons from the most recent one that we just went through. What does drought resilience look like then in practice?

KAREN KING: It depends on where in the country one is. But we’re largely no better prepared for droughts than we ever were, and in some cases less so.

So some of the country’s major cities could face another day-zero type scenario.

And while Johannesburg is not facing a citywide formal day zero at the moment, communities across large parts of the metro are already experiencing localised day-zero like conditions.

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The lessons we could take or should take from the previous day-zero warnings include things like decentralising and diversifying water supplies before the crisis hits, actively involving citizens and resource conservation, and building financial resilience for public utilities.

The major lessons we should take from the more recent 2023/24 regional drought include shifting early from reactive crisis management to proactive resilience, crop diversification to tolerate heat and drought, and then upgrading and maintaining municipal water infrastructure – which we hear so much about – in order to curb losses.

And to strengthen regional food security safety nets is another important one.

DUDUZILE RAMELA: Earlier you spoke about how the super El Niño is a human-induced change. I hope I heard you correctly there; please correct me if I did not. So what does this speak to about us, about our communities, municipalities, businesses? What can we do?

KAREN KING: It’s a combination. The trade winds are a natural phenomenon, but the extra warming of the Pacific Ocean is more a human-induced change.

What we need to do is we need to adopt preparedness as something that’s practical, not theoretical.

We need to focus on water security, food security and infrastructure-resilience simultaneously. Practical applications need to include things like maintaining and upgrading water infrastructure, reducing water losses, protecting our groundwater resources; so using it, but only when we’ve calculated and can use a sip.

They also include a yield from the borehole that is sustainable, expanding and decentralising our water storage and our reuse, strengthening local planning and response capacity and then supporting climate-resilient agriculture.

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So choosing crops wisely. For example, South Africa needs to diversify its staple crop use. We are very reliant on maize, while things like millet and sorghum are more drought-resistant, more pest-resistant, and they have a higher food value than the highly refined maize we all eat so much of.

And then at a more individual and community level, drought resilience will probably mean storing water in things like water tanks, reusing greywater at home, and then keeping a small amount of unscented, unopened bleach that’s less than a year old in all houses.

You only need two to four drops of bleach per litre of water to disinfect it, and bleach is a good alternative. It’s inexpensive and it’s widely available.

DUDUZILE RAMELA: Why is investing in preparedness significantly more cost-effective than disaster-response itself?

KAREN KING: Well, every drought creates significant economic, social, and infrastructure costs, and preparedness is not only one of the most effective tools against climate change, but also one of the most cost-effective resilience investments a country can make.

The cost of preparedness is always significantly lower than the cost of a crisis.

Local studies have found that for every rand invested in climate resilience, we save R3-R9 in avoided damages in emergency cleanup, in relief, and in long-term economic impacts.

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And it’s not just we that are finding this. In Australia studies have found that this ratio could be about one to 10, and in America about one to 12. These are countries that share our history of really severe drought conditions.

DUDUZILE RAMELA: Karen King is the climate resilience director at Atana. Thank you very much for your time this afternoon.