Affordable Chinese brands help drive SA’s NEV transition

The transition to new energy vehicles (NEVs) in South Africa is gaining pace, aided by the growing number of NEV models launched by Chinese brands at more affordable prices than traditional manufacturers.

This shift is taking place despite the absence of any government incentive to reduce the cost of NEV vehicles and increase consumer demand for them.

Most developed countries provide subsidies to reduce the cost of NEVs in their markets.

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TransUnion’s 2026 first quarter Mobility Insights Report reiterates that one of the most notable structural shift is the continued rise of Chinese automotive brands.

It found that Chinese car sales grew by 75% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, far outpacing traditional original equipment manufacturer (OEM) growth of 2% and overall passenger and light commercial vehicle (LCV) market growth of 12.7%.

As a result, Chinese brands now account for over 19% of new passenger and LCV sales – or almost one in five new vehicles sold in South Africa during the quarter.

Affordability

National Automobile Dealers’ Association (Nada) executive Ryan Seele says Chinese brands are aiding the transition to NEVs because their models are more affordable than the traditional brands.

Seele says the most affordable hybrid has been the locally produced Toyota Corolla Cross for the last four or five years, at about R550 000 compared to R340 000 for the cheapest Chinese model.

The cheapest Corolla Cross hybrid now costs R501 100.

Seele says there are also electric vehicle (EV) options from Chinese manufacturers, which are also extremely affordable.

He further says Chinese brands account for between 12% and 13% of the light vehicle market last year, and for these brands to account for almost 20% in the first quarter of this year is “certainly significant growth”.

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Automotive business council Naamsa says brands such as Geely, Chery and BYD have launched battery electric vehicles (BEVs) at similar pricing that are very affordable.

The cheapest derivative of the new Geely E2 costs R339 900, which is the most affordable EV in the South African market.

There have been six new Chinese brand entrants into the South African market this year, including the iCaur, Lepas and Geely.

Consumers are opting for these affordable new cars instead of buying a used vehicle, suggesting a continuation of this momentum.

TransUnion says the used-to-new vehicle registration ratio declined to 2.3 in the first quarter of this year.

“While used vehicles still make up the majority at 69% of total registrations, the share of new vehicles has risen to 31%, up from 23% in Q4 2025.

“This shift has been supported by favourable pricing dynamics, with new vehicle inflation falling to 0.8%, while used vehicle prices remained in deflation at -1.3%,” it says.

TransUnion adds that, on a combined portfolio basis, the Chery Group – including Chery, Jetour, Omoda and Jaecoo – recorded sales of 16 094 units in Q1 2026, positioning it among the top three automotive players.

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TransUnion South Africa director of research and consulting, Ayesha Hatea, says Chinese brands have moved beyond the role of price disruptors.

“They are becoming structural industry players, influencing dealer networks, financing ecosystems, ownership perceptions, and the wider discussion around localisation and industrial competitiveness,” she says.

TransUnion notes that powertrain preferences are also evolving, although internal combustion engine vehicles remain the most popular choice, preferred by 49% of consumers in the first quarter of this year.

Rise of hybrids

However, interest in hybrid electric vehicles has grown significantly to 39% from 30% in Q4 2025, making hybrids the leading electrified option.

Interest in both BEVs and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) also increased, with each reaching 26%.

Hatea adds that hybrids are emerging as a practical transition pathway for South African consumers.

“They offer fuel savings and lower running costs without full dependence on charging infrastructure, which makes them relevant in a market where affordability and operating certainty remain critical,” she says.

Consumer demand remains resilient 

TransUnion states that forward-looking consumer data remains positive, with its Consumer Pulse Survey showing that the share of consumers likely to purchase a vehicle in the next few months rose from 19% in Q4 2025 to 22% in Q1 this year.

Nada says despite the prospect of easing fuel prices, the unprecedented pressure felt by South African consumers at the pump has triggered a significant shift in buying behaviour, with motorists actively seeking options that future-proof their mobility choices.

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It says this is reflected in data from Naamsa, which reveals that BEV sales nearly doubled in Q1 2026 compared with a year earlier, while PHEV sales surged by a staggering 430%.

Nada says this is an encouraging sign of organic growth spurred by consumer choice, despite the absence of government incentives.