Rachel Reeves will be an immediate casualty of a government led by Andy Burnham as he seeks to steady the Labour party and revive the economy.
The incoming MP and would-be prime minister will be expected to appoint a new Chancellor even as Ms Reeves, the first female to hold the post, mounts a defence of her job.
Labour sources say her position will be as untenable as that of Sir Keir Starmer who is said to be prepaing to set out a timetable for his departure from Downing Street.
Mr Burnham won the by-election in Makerfield last week with a larger-than-expected majority, sweeping aside the challenge from Reform UK and enhancing his chances of succeeding Sir Keir.
Labour ministers attempted to portray the victory as an endorsement of Labour policies, but support for Mr Burnham was as much a vote against Labour policies and Sir Keir in particular.
Ms Reeves’s supporters say she should stay on in order to reassure the markets during any transition. However, Mr Burnham would be looking for a clean slate in order to rebuild confidence in the government.
That said, some of the existing or recent ministerial team are jostling for the job with Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, Wes Streeting, the former health secretary, Pat McFadden, the work and pensions secretary, and John Healey, the former defence secretary, among the frontrunners.
Mr Miliband would likely be the most divisive because of the widespread controversy around the green agenda. He is unpopular, even among some trade union leaders.
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