Mortgage rates may have ticked down for one week, but they’re back up on the week of June 11, according to Freddie Mac. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased by four basis points to 6.52%.
The daily 30-year mortgage rate has fluctuated throughout the week, according to Mortgage News Daily’s rate index. As of June 11, MND’s 30-year mortgage rate was 6.60%.
In general, mortgage rates continue to hover a little above 6.5%. In my years of reporting on housing and mortgage rates, I’ve witnessed how rising mortgage rates can limit potential homebuyers’ options. Some want to wait to buy until rates drop, and others get priced out altogether.
You may have heard that the Iran war has been dictating what happens with mortgage rates. However, homebuyers should know — the reality of what affects mortgage rates is changing.
“As the back-and-forth nature of U.S.-Iran peace discussions has become the status quo, the market is shifting its focus back to economic data, which put upward pressure on mortgage rates last week,” Jeff DerGurahian, Chief Investment Officer and Head Economist at loanDepot, said in a statement.
The Iran war isn’t moving mortgage rates
For weeks, the U.S. war with Iran was the driving factor behind mortgage rates. The week after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, interest rates started increasing. When there were talks of a ceasefire or public sentiment that the war would end soon, rates would inch down.
But the market is getting used to the uncertainty surrounding the conflict in the Middle East. Now the market is shifting its focus to economic data.
“Rates had started to improve, with some pricing dipping just below 6.5%, but stronger payroll data quickly shifted the tone, pushing rates back above that threshold as markets priced out Fed rate cuts and raised the odds of a hike later this year,” DerGurahian said.
Related: Zillow reveals major housing market shift
“Unless we see a major flare-up or a clearer path toward a lasting truce, the market will likely spend more time watching the economic data from here,” he continued.
This change is new for the 2026 home-buying season, but it’s not new for mortgage rates in general. Historically, it’s common for mortgage rates to heavily rely on economic factors such as the 10-year Treasury yield, inflation, and unemployment.
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Upcoming data that will impact mortgage rates
The next Federal Reserve meeting is June 16-17. It’s almost certain that the Fed will keep the federal funds rate unchanged. But if the central bank indicates that they plan to hike the rate sooner rather than later, mortgage rates could rise in response.
Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield more closely than the federal funds rate. However, many of the same economic factors that affect the Fed rate also impact the 10-year Treasury yield.
More on mortgage rates from Laura Grace Tarpley:
- Americans face decision after mortgage rate news
- Mortgage rate bets shift after surprising jobs report
- Americans meet unexpected challenge with mortgage news
Recent employment data has helped push up mortgage rates. Various jobs data is released throughout the month, and the U.S. Department of Labor publishes weekly jobless claims numbers every Thursday.
Typically, mortgage rates increase when the economy thrives and decrease when it struggles. If weekly jobless claims continually show that employment is improving, then mortgage rates could inch up.
Housing market trends working in buyers’ favor
Mortgage rates may be higher than people would like, but otherwise, it’s not a bad time to be a homebuyer.
- Buyers have more power. “Homes are sitting on the market longer, about 60 days on average, giving buyers negotiating power they haven’t had access to,” Vishal Garg, founder and CEO of Better Mortgage, told TheStreet. “Sellers are more willing to negotiate on price, concessions, and closing costs.”
- Inventory is increasing. Zillow research discovered that annual housing inventory increased by 1% in May. This may seem like a small uptick, but any incline is a win for homebuyers.
- Demand is low. Relatively high mortgage rates are keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines. If you still want to buy a house, this lack of competition gives you an advantage. You might not have to deal with a bidding war, and you could get a reasonable price on a house.
- Mortgage rates are below historical lows. The average 30-year rate since April 1971 is 7.69%, according to Freddie Mac. “The buyers that are winning are the ones who understand that a 3% rate is no longer a reality and likely won’t be in the distant future,” Garg said. “Those were extraordinary conditions.”
Related: Dave Ramsey sends message about mortgage payments
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