{"id":9975,"date":"2026-07-01T01:40:51","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T01:40:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/?p=9975"},"modified":"2026-07-01T01:40:51","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T01:40:51","slug":"oils-4-month-low-hands-exxon-chevron-a-fresh-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/?p=9975","title":{"rendered":"Oil&#039;s 4-month low hands Exxon, Chevron a fresh problem"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<p>The Iran war handed Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) their sharpest stock surge in years.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Then the peace dividend arrived, and it had the opposite effect.<\/p>\n<p>West Texas Intermediate prices <strong>fell to about $69<\/strong> a barrel on June 28, its <strong>lowest since late February<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>This happened as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increased and Saudi Arabia began loading vessels at its Ras Tanura terminal.<\/p>\n<p>It is an event that indicates major Gulf producers are ramping up their output.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Major Gulf producers ramping up output also sent Brent petroleum <strong>down by more than 10%<\/strong>, marking its steepest weekly decline in months.<\/p>\n<p>Both companies now face second-quarter earnings that look nothing like the ones Wall Street priced in two months ago.<\/p>\n<h2>How quickly the trade reversed for Exxon and Chevron<\/h2>\n<p>Exxon Mobil is trading at <strong>$136.12<\/strong>, down<strong> approximately 23%<\/strong> from its 52-week high of <strong>$176.41<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Chevron sits at <strong>$169.13<\/strong>, which is down <strong>about 21%<\/strong> from its <strong>$214.71 peak<\/strong>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Both stocks have declined in five of the past five sessions.<\/p>\n<p><strong>More Energy Stocks<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Exxon, Chevron investors cautious after oil news<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Morgan Stanley changes its oil forecast for the rest of 2026<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Chevron warns gas-price relief may take time<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>On June 22, the U.S. Treasury&#8217;s Office of Foreign Assets Control published <strong>General License X<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>General License X is a sweeping 60-day authorization that allows buyers worldwide to purchase Iranian crude with no volume cap.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Brent fell <strong>more than 3.3%<\/strong> that day, CNBC reported.<\/p>\n<p>According to Bloomberg, Persian Gulf oil exports are <strong>back to 75%<\/strong> of pre-war levels.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This supply is growing further as Saudi Arabia has restarted oil shipments from its Ras Tanura port.<\/p>\n<p>As a result, the war situation that drove both Exxon Mobil and Chevron stocks to their 2026 highs is fading faster than analysts expected.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure>\n<p>                        <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.thestreet.com\/.image\/NDA6MDAwMDAwMDAzMDk3Njgy\/chevroncorporationheadquarters_pl_300626.jpg?profile=rss\" height=\"675\" width=\"1013\"><figcaption>The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic has accelerated the unwinding of oil\u2019s war premium.<\/p>\n<p>hapabapa &amp;sol; Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>What Exxon and Chevron&#8217;s first-quarter results say about Q2<\/h2>\n<p>Exxon Mobil reported <strong>$85.14 billion<\/strong> in Q1 2026 revenue, Yahoo Finance confirmed, marking a <strong>2.4% increase<\/strong> from the same period last year.<\/p>\n<p>Yahoo Finance also reported that Chevron&#8217;s revenue remained flat at <strong>$47.56 billion<\/strong> compared to the same period.<\/p>\n<p>However, despite stable revenue, Exxon&#8217;s net income fell 45% from the same quarter last year, while Chevron&#8217;s <strong>dropped 36%<\/strong>, according to CNBC. This decline is a result of previous financial hedging.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Both companies missed out on maximum profits because they fixed their oil prices before the market jumped above $100.<\/p>\n<p>Now that oil is <strong>retreating toward $69<\/strong>, those price locks are no longer in play.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Exxon Mobil and Chevron&#8217;s upcoming second-quarter profits will depend on current market prices.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Earlier in May, CEO Darren Woods said that &#8220;the market hasn&#8217;t seen the full impact&#8221; of the war&#8217;s disruption, Barron&#8217;s noted.<\/p>\n<p>Today, that protective market cushion is gone.<\/p>\n<h2>Oil supply is rising faster than the market expected<\/h2>\n<p>The Hormuz reopening is only part of what is dampening oil prices.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Iraq is threatening to consider all options, including exiting OPEC, if its production quota is not significantly raised, according to FXStreet.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The United Arab Emirates has already left the organization, and Middle Eastern producers are racing to ramp up output after months of forced cutbacks.<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Related: Chevron surprises investors with eye-catching disclosure<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>As a result, major banks are changing their targets.<\/p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley changed its Brent forecast to <strong>$90 a barrel<\/strong><strong>for the third quarter<\/strong> of 2026 and <strong>$80 for the fourth quarter<\/strong>, while maintaining overweight ratings on both XOM and CVX.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs also moved its fourth-quarter <strong>2026 Brent estimate to<\/strong><strong>$80<\/strong> and its <strong>2027 average to $75<\/strong>, according to Investing.com.<\/p>\n<h2>What the dividend floor means for Exxon and Chevron investors<\/h2>\n<p>During a market drop, energy investors are heavily drawn to the dividend floor, which is a company&#8217;s financial commitment to maintain steady payouts even when oil prices fall.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>ExxonMobil and Chevron are currently leveraging this dividend floor to keep shareholders invested.<\/p>\n<p>ExxonMobil pays investors <strong>$1.03 per share<\/strong> every three months, the company confirmed. Exxon Mobil also revealed that it is <strong>buying back $20 billion<\/strong> of its own shares to boost stockholder value, assuming reasonable market conditions.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Chevron&#8217;s quarterly payout is <strong>$1.78<\/strong>, a company press release indicated, and it&#8217;s targeting <strong>$3 to $4 billion<\/strong> in structural cost reductions by the end of 2026, the firm&#8217;s newsroom reported.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>These moves come as the broader oil market faces significant headwinds.<\/p>\n<p>The EIA\u2019s Short-Term Energy Outlook projects global oil demand will fall by <strong>1.1 million barrels per day<\/strong> in 2026.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>This contrasts sharply with earlier growth forecasts for the year.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Until supply and demand stabilize, these dividend floors will soften the blow of market volatility, even if they cannot remove it entirely.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2>What Exxon and Chevron investors should monitor<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Q2 2026 earnings<\/strong>: Without hedge buffers, upcoming Q2 earnings will rely entirely on lower $69 to $72 oil prices. Analysts expect filings to be in by late July and early August.<\/li>\n<li><strong>U.S.-Iran Doha talks<\/strong>: U.S. and Iranian officials are scheduled to meet in Doha to discuss the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reports. A breakdown in the talks could send oil prices up sharply and quickly reverse losses for XOM and CVX.<\/li>\n<li><strong>OPEC+ cohesion<\/strong>: Iraq&#8217;s production quota demands and any further departures from the alliance could accelerate the supply excess and push prices lower into the second half.<\/li>\n<li><strong>EIA demand revisions<\/strong>: Any further decline in global oil demand would put additional pressure on Exxon and Chevron&#8217;s second-half profits.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p align=\"center\"><strong>Related: Exxon, Chevron investors cautious after oil news<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>#Oil039s #4month #hands #Exxon #Chevron #fresh #problem<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Iran war handed Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) their sharpest stock surge in years.\u00a0 Then the peace dividend arrived, and it had the opposite effect. West Texas Intermediate&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":9976,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[246],"tags":[11857,497,496,1508,6841,8971,766],"class_list":["post-9975","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-popular","tag-4month","tag-chevron","tag-exxon","tag-fresh","tag-hands","tag-oil039s","tag-problem"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9975","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=9975"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9975\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/9976"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=9975"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=9975"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=9975"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}