Bitcoin is facing a massive options expiry that risks putting more pressure on a market already struggling with fading institutional demand and macroeconomic headwinds.<\/p>\n
About $10 billion of notional value in Bitcoin options is set to expire on Deribit, the largest crypto options venue, at 4 p.m. Friday in Singapore. Because most of those options are bullish bets and Bitcoin has been falling, there\u2019s potential for traders to adopt more defensive or bearish positioning.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is a book that has been positioned for higher prices over the medium term, now being marked against a spot that has slipped,\u201d said Jean-David Pequignot, chief commercial officer at Deribit. \u201cThe consensus long-call positioning has drifted offside.\u201d<\/p>\n
Bitcoin dipped below $60 000 in New York trading Wednesday to $59 023, its lowest since October 2024, and was at $60 800 at 12:30 p.m. Thursday in Singapore. It has struggled to find its footing since the October 10 market crash and is down more than 50% from its record high.<\/p>\n
The largest cryptocurrency is below its 200-week moving average, a technical level that can signal a prolonged bear market.<\/p>\n
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The Bitcoin options expiring on Deribit represent about 37% of open interest, the total number of contracts currently active.<\/p>\n
The ratio of bearish \u201cputs\u201d to bullish \u201ccalls\u201d is 0.83, according to Pequignot, indicating more bets are on Bitcoin appreciating.<\/p>\n
The bulk of call open interest is now out of the money, meaning the contracts have no intrinsic value at current prices. Puts, by contrast, are clustered around $60 000 to $65 000 and $70 000 to $75 000. That positioning suggests bearish bets are more likely to pay off.<\/p>\n
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<\/p>\nOpen interest by strike price for the June 26 expiry<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
To be sure, \u201cexpiry mechanics clear positioning; they do not set direction,\u201d said Adam Haeems, head of asset management at Tesseract Group. But the key issue is still a call-skewed market falling into thin quarter-end and summer liquidity, he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThin books plus a concentrated expiry mean Friday\u2019s move likely overshoots in whichever direction flow tips first, then mean-reverts once dealer hedging unwinds,\u201d Haeems said. Dealer hedging refers to trades market makers use to manage exposure as prices move.<\/p>\n
Any sharp move around expiry may say more about positioning than a lasting shift in trend. Haeems said the more important test will come in the first full week of July, after the quarterly book has cleared and leverage has been reduced.<\/p>\n
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The backdrop has worsened outside derivatives.<\/p>\n
US-listed Bitcoin funds have posted almost $3 billion of net outflows in June so far, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Strategy Inc., the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, is also under pressure amid investor concerns about its ability to meet its financial obligations.<\/p>\n
Macro pressure is also weighing on cryptocurrencies as the prospect of rising interest rates encourages capital away from assets that don\u2019t pay a yield.<\/p>\n
Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, said option traders\u2019 longer-dated bearish bias toward Bitcoin has intensified, while hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and elevated Treasury yields suggest investors are pricing in tighter liquidity.<\/p>\n
\u201cUnder conditions of contracting liquidity, BTC typically does not fare so well,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u00a9 2026 Bloomberg<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
#Bitcoins #10bn #options #expiry #risks #deepening #selloff<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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