Andriy Onufriyenko / Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n Goldman Sachs analysts were always of the opinion that the oil market remains vulnerable to a fleshed-out supply shock from the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions.<\/p>\n More Oil and Gas:<\/strong><\/p>\n That view still stands, and the bank kept its Q4 2026 Brent crude forecast at $90 a barrel<\/strong>, underscoring ongoing fears over geopolitical risk supporting prices.<\/p>\n The change is further out.<\/p>\n Goldman lowered its 2027 average Brent forecast to $80<\/strong> a barrel, down by $5<\/strong>. That revamp suggests that the bank doesn\u2019t see the current war premium turning into a lasting oil-price surge.<\/p>\n The reason is that the market has shaken out.<\/p>\n \u00a0Goldman pointed to stronger supply from the U.S., Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela and the UAE, along with weaker demand tied partly to China\u2019s shift toward electric vehicles.<\/p>\n The bank also said some demand damage may stick, saying it assumes \u201cjust over 10% of the demand weakness persists”.<\/p>\n Goldman is now saying the bigger 2027 risk may be oversupply and weaker demand.<\/p>\n Additionally, the physical market still remains tight, which is why Goldman is not calling for oil prices to start tanking.\u00a0<\/p>\n According to reporting from Investing, U.S. crude inventories dropped by 7.2 million barrels to 426.5 million, nearly 5% below the five-year average, while distillates sat 13% below normal.\u00a0<\/p>\n So if Hormuz reopens, prices can ease, but thin inventories leave crude exposed to another sharp spike if diplomacy falls through.\u00a0<\/p>\n The Strait of Hormuz remains the pressure point in the oil market, as it is tied to about one-fifth of global oil and LNG supply.\u00a0<\/p>\n When traders believe the route can reopen, the war premium fades quickly.<\/p>\n Though we\u2019re already seeing the effects of that premium fade with a likely peace deal, the risk has not disappeared.\u00a0<\/p>\n U.S. officials said millions of barrels a day are still moving with military support, while Reuters reported that Hormuz disruptions have severely reshaped global energy flows.<\/p>\n In fact,Exxon CEO Darren Woods<\/strong> recently said that,<\/p>\n \u201cOne of these supply sources will become exhausted as the conflict goes on,\u201d Woods said, adding that \u201cthere\u2019s more to come if the strait remains closed.\u201d<\/p>\n So if Hormuz normalizes, supply growth and weaker demand can pressure prices. If talks fail, tight inventories and restricted flows could send crude sharply higher again.<\/p>\n Goldman\u2019s reset changes the oil trade from a simple war-premium story into a positioning problem.<\/p>\n If crude prices keep easing, that could lower inflation pressure and support rate-sensitive parts of the market, including growth stocks, tech, and AI names.<\/p>\n Lower energy costs can also help airlines, transport, retailers, and other consumer-facing companies that are sensitive to fuel and input costs.<\/p>\n On the flipside, a lower 2027 oil path could pressure energy stocks if investors start pricing weaker demand and rising supply instead of geopolitical scarcity.\u00a0<\/p>\n That would shift money away from producers and toward sectors that benefit from cheaper crude.<\/p>\n The bigger risk is volatility.\u00a0<\/p>\n If the Strait of Hormuz talks fail, tight inventories could quickly bring back the oil spike trade and revive inflation fears.<\/p>\n Related: Bank of America warns stock market may face a 1994-style shock<\/strong><\/p>\n #Goldman #Sachs #quietly #resets #oil #price #forecast<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Oil\u2019s war premium just got served a big haymaker on June 12, following reports that U.S. and Iranian officials had agreed on a peace-deal text, according to The Washington Post.… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7143,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[246],"tags":[483,1360,280,100,555,481,1361],"class_list":["post-7142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-popular","tag-forecast","tag-goldman","tag-oil","tag-price","tag-quietly","tag-resets","tag-sachs"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7142"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7142\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7143"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}![](\"https:\/\/www.thestreet.com\/.image\/NDA6MDAwMDAwMDAzMDc3NzE1\/oil-crisis.jpg?profile=rss\")
What Goldman Sachs changed in its oil forecast<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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Why the Strait of Hormuz still matters for crude prices<\/strong><\/h2>\n
The key numbers behind the oil price reset<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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What the forecast means for investors<\/strong><\/h2>\n