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Hi, this is Amanda Gerut pinch writing for Allie Garfinkle from Aspen where we just wrapped the 25th annual Fortune Brainstorm Tech conference.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Lots of buzz about SpaceX\u2019s IPO slated for Friday. Given the $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion valuation range that has been thrown around\u2014and the prospect of a total $5 trillion in value coming online after adding in Anthropic and OpenAI\u2014you would be forgiven for thinking this summer means salvation for venture capital.\u00a0<\/p>\n
That\u2019s the idea floating around out there, said Nizar Tarhuni, executive VP of research and market intelligence at PitchBook.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s a narrative that this is the unleash,\u201d said Tarhuni, who spoke during our live Term Sheet breakfast this week. That this is the savior of the venture market and locked-up liquidity, and I think it\u2019s an important milestone, but it\u2019s not necessarily a watershed moment.\u201d<\/p>\n
It all sounds tempting for a venture industry starved for exits, to be suddenly confronted with the onslaught of SpaceX, and then the confidential-but-nowhere-near-final IPO filings from OpenAI and Anthropic. It sure reads like everyone is about to eat.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s just not the case, said Tarhuni.\u00a0<\/p>\n
He estimated there are about 11,000 venture investors out there in the market, and maybe 3,500 to 4,000 who are doing at least two deals a year. Among those, about 700 are invested in one of these three companies. That\u2019s about 20% of the book, which means 80% of active VC are outside what looks to be one of the most significant liquidity events in history.\u00a0<\/p>\n
When Tarhuni, and his co-panelists CapitalG\u2019s Mo Jomaa and Notable Capital\u2019s Hans Tung, broke it down, the conclusion was that these companies are anomalies. Since 2015, about $1.5 trillion in venture value has come to the capital markets. SpaceX is about to do that on its own. OpenAI and Anthropic will easily overshadow the size of other public listings in the past two decades, or ever.\u00a0<\/p>\n
They\u2019re going public because their appetite for capital, more specifically their need for compute power, is larger than what the private markets can properly nourish and feed. Even among the limited partners that fund all of this, there\u2019s a concentrated hierarchy.\u00a0<\/p>\n
The top tier of LPs got into SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, said Tung, either directly or through funds. Their numbers are about to look dramatically better than those of their peers. They\u2019ll want more direct access to the next three dozen AI names that matter, he added, and that will inevitably push capital toward a shrinking set of winners. Tung predicts a multi-year shakeout that will ripple through the LP base, the venture market and even the buyout market, and all at once. Buyouts haven\u2019t been adjusted for the AI impact, and the next decade will see plenty go through, said Tung.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cThe ripple effect, I think, is going to be dramatic over the next five years,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
So, no this is not an open IPO window, said Jomaa, a partner at Alphabet\u2019s independent growth fund. But that doesn\u2019t mean there\u2019s nothing to take away from this moment.\u00a0<\/p>\n
\u201cIPO windows come and go, and they open and close, and it\u2019s like [riding] a very cyclical roller coaster, but the lessons and the investments you make to become IPO-ready are very timeless,\u201d said Jomaa. SpaceX is investing heavily in its growth story, said Jomaa, because at the end of the day, \u201cgrowth compounds, margins do not.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cAt the end of the day, investors buy stories, they don\u2019t just buy stocks,\u201d he said. \u201cIf you don\u2019t have a really compelling narrative, investors are skeptical creatures and they will create a defensive one for you.\u201d<\/p>\n
See you tomorrow,<\/p>\n
Amanda Gerut<\/strong> P.S. It\u2019s here: the inaugural Fortune Crypto 100.<\/strong> In the tradition of the Fortune 500, our editorial team has ranked the most influential companies and protocols in the digital asset ecosystem from crypto-native pioneers like Coinbase and Uniswap to Wall Street giants like JPMorgan and BlackRock. See who made the list, and who came out on top in all 10 categories here.<\/p>\n Joey Abrams curated the deals section of today\u2019s newsletter.<\/em> Subscribe here.<\/p>\n – <\/span>NEURA<\/b> Robotics<\/b>, a Metzingen, Germany-based cognitive robotics company, raised $1.4 billion in Series C funding from <\/span>Tether<\/b>, <\/span>Qualcomm<\/b>, <\/span>Amazon<\/b>, <\/span>NVIDIA<\/b>, and others.<\/span><\/p>\n – <\/span>TensorWave<\/b>, a Las Vegas, Nev.-based AI infrastructure company focused on GPU cloud computing, raised $350 million in Series B funding. <\/span>Magnetar<\/b> and <\/span>AMD<\/b> Ventures<\/b> led the round and were joined by <\/span>Maverick<\/b> Silicon<\/b>, <\/span>Nexus<\/b> Venture<\/b> Partners<\/b>, and <\/span>Western<\/b> Frontier<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n – <\/span>SonoThera<\/b>, a South San Francisco-based developer of genetic medicines, raised $125 million in Series B funding. Vida Ventures led the round and was joined by <\/span>ARK Invest<\/b>, <\/span>CureDuchenne<\/b> Ventures<\/b>, <\/span>Leaps by Bayer<\/b>, <\/span>Otsuka<\/b> Pharmaceutical<\/b>, and others.<\/span><\/p>\n – <\/span>Poetic<\/b>, a San Francisco-based AI enterprise automation\/compliance platform, raised $50 million in Series A funding. <\/span>Kleiner<\/b> Perkins<\/b> led the round and was joined by <\/span>Founders<\/b> Fund<\/b>, <\/span>First<\/b> Harmonic<\/b>, and <\/span>OpenAI<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n – <\/span>Pi<\/b>, a San Francisco-based agentic AI security company, raised $35 million in funding. <\/span>Brightmind<\/b> Partners<\/b> and <\/span>Third<\/b> Point<\/b> Ventures<\/b> led the round.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n – <\/span>Aryon<\/b> Security<\/b>, a Tel Aviv, Israel-based cloud security enforcement platform, raised $29 million in Series A funding. <\/span>Brightmind<\/b> Partners<\/b> led the round and was joined by <\/span>Datadog<\/b> Ventures<\/b> and others.<\/span><\/p>\n – <\/span>Maneva<\/b>, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based industrial AI platform for manufacturing operations, raised $27 million in Series A funding. <\/span>U.S. Venture Partners<\/b> led the round and was joined by <\/span>Bling<\/b> Capital<\/b>, <\/span>Freestyle<\/b> Capital<\/b>, and angel investors.<\/span><\/p>\n – <\/span>Jedify<\/b>, a New York City-based AI data applications platform, raised $24 million in Series A funding. <\/span>Norwest<\/b> led the round and was joined by <\/span>Snowflake<\/b> and existing investors.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n – <\/span>Capsa<\/b> AI<\/b>, a London, U.K. and New York City-based AI operating system for private capital, raised $18 million in Series A funding. <\/span>TX<\/b> Ventures<\/b> and <\/span>Pivot<\/b> Investment<\/b> Partners<\/b> led the round and were joined by <\/span>Bek<\/b> Ventures<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n – <\/span>F2<\/b>, a New York City-based compounding intelligence platform for private markets, raised $14 million in seed funding. <\/span>HighlandX<\/b> led the round.<\/span><\/p>\n – <\/span>SWARM<\/b> Engineering<\/b>, an Irvine, Calif.-based AI decision intelligence company focused on agrifood and manufacturing, raised $10 million in Series A funding. <\/span>S2G<\/b> Investments<\/b> and <\/span>AgRogue<\/b> Growth<\/b> Partners led the round.<\/span><\/p>\n – <\/span>Niteshift<\/b>, a New York City-based cloud platform for AI coding agents, raised $7 million in seed funding. <\/span>Greylock<\/b> led the round and was joined by <\/span>Amplify<\/b> Partners<\/b>, <\/span>Lux<\/b> Capital<\/b>, <\/span>BoxGroup<\/b>, and <\/span>SV<\/b> Angel<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n – <\/span>Uncovr<\/b>, a New York City and Paris, France-based surgical AI platform that automates operative documentation and coding, raised $7 million in seed funding. <\/span>Index<\/b> Ventures<\/b> led the round and was joined by <\/span>Seedcamp<\/b>, <\/span>Frst<\/b>, <\/span>No<\/b> Label<\/b> Ventures<\/b>, <\/span>Entrepreneurs<\/b> First<\/b>, and others.<\/span><\/p>\n – <\/span>RELAI<\/b>, a Bethesda, Md.-based continual learning platform for AI agents, raised $6.9 million in funding, including a $5.4 million pre-seed round led by <\/span>.406 Ventures<\/b>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n – <\/span>Chptr<\/b>, a New York City-based fan engagement and monetization platform, raised $5.5 million in Series A funding. <\/span>CityRock<\/b> led the round and was joined by <\/span>Tribute<\/b> Technology<\/b> and others.<\/span><\/p>\n – <\/span>Fearn<\/b>, a San Francisco-based AI-native patent platform, raised $5.5 million in seed funding. <\/span>Kindred<\/b> Ventures<\/b> led the round and was joined by <\/span>a16z<\/b> speedrun<\/b>, <\/span>Designer<\/b> Fund<\/b>, and <\/span>Essence<\/b> VC<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n – <\/span>Concentrate<\/b> AI<\/b>, a New York City-based AI workflow automation platform, raised $5 million in pre-seed funding from <\/span>TRUE<\/b> Ventures<\/b> and <\/span>RRE<\/b> Ventures<\/b>.<\/span><\/p>\n – <\/span>Amplix<\/b>, a portfolio company of <\/span>Gemspring<\/b> Capital<\/b>, acquired <\/span>RAS3<\/b> Communications<\/b> and<\/b> Consulting<\/b>, a Miami, Fla.-based telecom advisory firm. Financial terms were not disclosed.<\/span><\/p>\n – <\/span>PatientCare<\/b> EMS Solutions<\/b>, backed by <\/span>Grant<\/b> Avenue<\/b> Capital<\/b>, acquired <\/span>Superior<\/b> Mobile<\/b> Health<\/b>, a San Antonio, Texas-based health care transportation services company. Financial terms were not disclosed.<\/span><\/p>\n – <\/span>SPATCO<\/b> Energy<\/b> Solutions<\/b>, a portfolio company of <\/span>Kian<\/b> Capital<\/b>, acquired <\/span>
Email: <\/strong>amanda.gerut@fortune.com
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