{"id":4132,"date":"2026-05-26T11:18:38","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T11:18:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/?p=4132"},"modified":"2026-05-26T11:18:38","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T11:18:38","slug":"u-s-would-only-break-iranian-ceasefire-if-there-was-absolutely-no-alternative-says-deutsche-bank","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/?p=4132","title":{"rendered":"U.S. would only break Iranian ceasefire if there was ‘absolutely no alternative,’ says Deutsche Bank"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

A year ago, U.S. strikes against Iran would have had analysts running for the hills. <\/span>In 2026, they\u2019re barely raising an eyebrow.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

On Monday, the U.S. military carried out action near the Strait of Hormuz, <\/span>claiming self-defense rather than signaling an end to the ceasefire<\/span>. In response, NBC News reported Iran\u2019s Revolutionary Guard vowed today to \u201crespond decisively to any violation of the ceasefire.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite the potential knock to negotiations, <\/span>economists remained relatively sanguine this morning.<\/span>\u00a0\u201dThe market looks minded to continue pricing de-escalation in the Middle East \u2013 notwithstanding some occasional surgical strikes from the U.S.,\u201d wrote ING\u2019s Chris Turner.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cNet net, optimism is still elevated that an agreement can be made to end the war,\u201d chimed Deutsche Bank\u2019s Jim Reid to clients this morning. \u201cWe have been here before, of course, but it has felt for some time that the move towards peace has been three steps forward and one or two back \u2026 my view for a while has been that such a prolonged truce and ceasefire would not have held if the U.S. genuinely wanted to continue strikes, unless there was absolutely no alternative.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cLast night’s targeted action is clearly a warning shot that the ceasefire is fragile though, so we will have to see what the next few days of negotiations bring.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

ONE BIG THING<\/h3>\n

CEO says labor market’s missing ingredient is work ethic<\/h2>\n

There\u2019s a disconnect in the labor market right now, according to Arvind Jain, ex-<\/span>Google<\/span> engineer and Rubrik co-founder: students say they can\u2019t find a job, but employers can\u2019t find the talent they need.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In fact, Jain said his $7.2 billion AI startup, Glean, is receiving thousands of job applications every day. And the No.1 thing that separates the handful who hear back is not a degree, a skill set, or even an impressive <\/span>r\u00e9sum\u00e9<\/span>\u2014but a strong work ethic.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cI have a firm belief that hard work solves all the problems,\u201d Jain <\/span>tells <\/span>Fortune\u2019s<\/span><\/i> Orianna Rosa Royle<\/span>. The yardstick for me is that when I work in a group, I want to be known as the person who gives [it] the most.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIf you work hard, you always have lots of choices. Every company wants to work with you.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

CAPEX<\/h3>\n

What headwinds?<\/h2>\n

Elsie Peng at Goldman Sachs released her mid-year capex update early this morning, and it’s good news for <\/span>investors bullish on AI infrastructure spending<\/span>. Peng writes that Goldman\u2014as well as a handful of its peers\u2014expects solid capex growth through the rest of the year, bolstered by AI spending and tax incentives.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Looking specifically at AI, investment in equipment and structures is expected to remain <\/span>strong for the rest of the year as companies press ahead with infrastructure builds, wrote Peng. Additionally, later this year, AI-related software and R&D spending should become more visible as enterprise adoption is expected to increase.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The headwind for the outlook in general at the moment is global oil prices and how quickly they may or may not normalize. Peng suggests this concern doesn\u2019t apply to capex to the same degree, writing: \u201cHistorically, higher oil prices tended to boost energy-sector capital spending, but this relationship has weakened considerably in recent years as producers have prioritized capital discipline over production growth, and high-frequency data through May show little change in drilling and production activity so far.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cOutside the energy sector, equipment investment has tended to decline only modestly in response to higher energy costs, with the pullback concentrated mainly in the transportation sector.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/h3>\n

CHART OF THE DAY<\/h3>\n

Changing jobs isn’t the payoff it once was<\/h2>\n
\"\"<\/div>\n

It still pays to job hop, according to the Bank of America Institute\u2019s Joe Wadford. In a new note, Wadford writes that it still pays to switch companies for those earlier in their careers.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Millennials who switched employers saw their after-tax wages grow twice as fast as those who stayed<\/span>, while Gen Z employees saw earnings growth increase fourfold. However, this rate has slowed in the past four years alongside a broader market slowdown.<\/span><\/p>\n

The economist added: \u201cIf the labor market continues to recover, we might see some increase in the pay premium for switching jobs, especially given the premium is currently lower than it was pre-pandemic. But given the recent slowdown in certain portions of the labor market and potential disruptions from AI, some people may be wary of switching jobs.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

NUMBER OF THE DAY<\/h3>\n

$2 trillion<\/h2>\n

The 30-year Treasury note reached its highest yield in almost 19 years last week at 5.2%, points out the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

If interest rates remain that high across the yield curve, then debt would increase an additional $2 trillion over a decade, reaching 125% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2036, according to the committee.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Likewise, interest costs would grow from 3.2% of GDP (equal to $970 billion) in 2025 to 5.3% of GDP ($2.5 trillion) by 2036,\u00a0consuming 30% of government revenues as a result.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cLawmakers must work both to bring down interest rates and to prevent high rates from crowding out other priorities or sparking a fiscal crisis,\u201d the committee wrote. \u201cThe best way to accomplish these goals is through deficit reduction, which can help the Federal Reserve lower rates by reducing near-term inflationary pressures, put downward pressure on long-term rates by reducing economic crowd-out, and reduce the debt burden on which the government must pay interest.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWith debt approaching record levels, there is little time to lose.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/h3>\n

ONE MORE THING<\/h3>\n

Why waste a good chart?<\/h2>\n
\"\"<\/div>\n

ING\u2019s James Smith knows he has committed a tongue-in-cheek \u201ccrime against economics\u201d with the above graph, addressing the inevitable comparisons between today\u2019s outlook and the outcome of the 1970s inflation spike.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The similarities are striking, concedes Smith, but it doesn\u2019t take long for the analogy to break down: \u201cFirst, the shock itself. Even at today\u2019s US$110 per barrel, oil prices in real terms are well below late-70s levels \u2013 particularly if you\u2019re adjusting for OECD prices over the past 50 years.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Secondly: \u201cThe West just isn\u2019t as hungry for oil as it was back then,\u201d notes Smith. \u201cPer?capita consumption is down by a third in the U.S. and over half in the U.K., and energy intensity has fallen with it. Electricity generation, meanwhile, has become a bigger slice of energy usage.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

There\u2019s also the fact that central banks and policymakers will be keen to remember the lesson of half a century ago, notes the economist, and the fact that AI-driven productivity may meaningfully dampen inflation data.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cHistorical parallels are neat and often irresistible,\u201d Smith adds. \u201cBut no period is a perfect match. And today, despite the aesthetic similarities, it just isn\u2019t the 1970s. Still, why let that get in the way of a good chart?\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

#U.S #break #Iranian #ceasefire #absolutely #alternative #Deutsche #Bank<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A year ago, U.S. strikes against Iran would have had analysts running for the hills. In 2026, they\u2019re barely raising an eyebrow.\u00a0 On Monday, the U.S. military carried out action… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4133,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[4030,6169,200,2119,2893,4521,816,445,3864,166,1222,599],"class_list":["post-4132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-news","tag-absolutely","tag-alternative","tag-bank","tag-break","tag-ceasefire","tag-deutsche","tag-economics","tag-iran","tag-iranian","tag-markets","tag-news","tag-u-s"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4132","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4132"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4132\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4133"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4132"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4132"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4132"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}