{"id":2590,"date":"2026-05-11T11:18:35","date_gmt":"2026-05-11T11:18:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/?p=2590"},"modified":"2026-05-11T11:18:35","modified_gmt":"2026-05-11T11:18:35","slug":"as-long-as-the-strait-of-hormuz-stays-closed-markets-remain-on-a-knife-edge-deutsche-bank-warns","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/?p=2590","title":{"rendered":"\u2018As long as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, markets remain on a knife-edge,\u2019 Deutsche Bank warns"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

Quick note: <\/strong>Subscribe to the forthcoming Fortune Gulf Brief<\/strong>. Every Tuesday, this new newsletter will deliver clear-eyed, authoritative intelligence on the deals, decisions, policies, and power shifts shaping one of the world\u2019s most consequential regions, written for the people who need to act on it. Sign up here.<\/p>\n

\n

THE MARKETS<\/h3>\n

Stocks take a breather after record highs in the U.S. and South Korea<\/b><\/h2>\n
    \n
  • S&P 500 futures<\/b> were flat this morning. The index rose 0.84% on Friday to set a new record high, at 7,398.93.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • In Europe,<\/b> the Stoxx 600 was down 0.16% in early trading and the U.K.\u2019s FTSE 100 was up 0.13% before lunch.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Asia: <\/b>South Korea\u2019s KOSPI was up 4.32% to set a new all-time high. The index is up an astonishing 81.51% year-to-date. Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 was down 0.47%. India\u2019s Nifty 50 fell 1.1%. China\u2019s CSI 300 gained 1.64%.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Brent crude<\/b> was $104 per barrel this morning, up from a low of $94 the day before.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Bitcoin<\/b> was at $80.8K.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
    \"\"<\/div>\n

    IRAN<\/h3>\n

    \u201cAs long as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, markets remain on a knife-edge\u201d<\/b><\/h2>\n

    No end in sight: <\/b>As we enter the 11th week of the \u201c<\/span>six-week<\/span>\u201d war against Iran, hopes are fading that the U.S. and Tehran will come to terms anytime soon. President Trump yesterday <\/span>blasted Iran\u2019s response<\/span> to his peace proposals as \u201cTOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE.\u201d He accused Tehran of \u201cplaying games\u201d with the U.S., but added, \u201cThey will be laughing no longer!\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

    “I don’t like their letter. It’s inappropriate. I don’t like their response,” <\/span>Trump told Axios<\/span>. “They have been tapping along many nations for 47 years.”\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    Tehran wants compensation<\/b> for war damage and control over the Strait of Hormuz, <\/span>according to the BBC<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u201cIt\u2019s not over\u201d: <\/b>Separately, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu <\/span>told CBS <\/span>that the war won\u2019t end until Iran\u2019s nuclear and military capabilities are completely eliminated: \u201cIt’s not over, because there’s still nuclear material, enriched uranium that has to be taken out of Iran. There are still enrichment sites that have to be dismantled. There are still proxies that– Iran supports. There are ballistic missiles that they still want to produce. Now, we’ve degraded a lot of it. But all that is still there, and there’s work to be done.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

    What Wall Street is saying:<\/b> \u201cThe basic problem for markets remains\u2014reopening the Strait of Hormuz depends on Iran, there is little information about the Iranian government\u2019s position, and information from other sources (including the U.S.) cannot be considered reliable,\u201d Paul Donovan said in a note this morning.<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u201cThe absence of any meaningful kinetic activity for over a month suggests to me a firm U.S. preference for reaching a deal. \u2026 It remains an unusual conflict with little action now for a month. In simple terms though, as long as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, markets remain on a knife-edge. Polymarket currently assigns a 50% probability to it fully reopening by 30 June,\u201d Deutsche Bank\u2019s Jim Reid said.<\/span><\/p>\n

    “Last week’s optimism that a Middle East peace deal could be reached ahead of President Trump’s visit to China … has been dashed,” Chris Turner at ING said in a note. “Barring some intense behind-the-scenes pressure from China to secure a deal, the market will continue to price an impasse, higher oil prices and a wave of global inflation.”<\/p>\n

      \n
    • China: <\/b>Trump is scheduled to meet Xi Jinping later this week.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      THE JOB MARKET<\/h3>\n

      The American economy is \u201cso much better than what the doom crew has been saying\u201d<\/b><\/h2>\n

      Last week\u2019s U.S. jobs number came in waaay above expectations\u2014<\/span>115,000 new roles created<\/span>\u2014and economists have reset their assessments of the economy pretty dramatically. Just weeks ago, the talk was of a possible recession or stagflation. Today, the uplands are so broadly sunlit that most analysts say future interest rate cuts from the Fed are now likely pushed off into the far distance. Here\u2019s a sampling of their commentary:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

        \n
      • \u201cThe economy is so much better than what the doom crew has been saying.\u201d\u2014Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management.<\/span><\/li>\n
      • \u201cThis report should give investors confidence that stagflation or recession fears are unfounded, especially if the Iran conflict is nearing a resolution.\u201d\u2014John Luke Tyner, portfolio manager & head of fixed income at Aptus Capital Advisors.<\/span><\/li>\n
      • \u201cNot too hot and not too cold, no change in the unemployment rate all adds up to likely no more rate cuts in the near term. This report does push away fears of a recession any time soon.\u201d\u2014Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
      • \u201cSteady labor conditions alongside rising inflation risks are raising the bar for rate cuts and supporting a prolonged pause.\u201d\u2014EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco and senior economist Lydia Boussour.<\/span><\/li>\n
      • \u201cThe labor market is healthy enough to withstand an extended period of steady interest rates as the Fed focuses on the inflation side of its dual mandate. In our May baseline, we\u2019ll push back the next rate cut from June to Dec.\u201d\u2014Oxford Economics lead economist Nancy Vanden Houten.<\/span><\/li>\n
      • \u201cAssuming the U.S. economy avoids downside risks from the Iran War, its next challenge will likely be a labor shortage.\u201d\u2014Bill Adams, chief U.S. economist, Fifth Third Commercial Bank.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

        There\u2019s one fly in the ointment \u2026 fewer Americans are even trying<\/b><\/h2>\n

        The U.S. labor force participation rate fell to 61.8%, the lowest it has been under the Trump administration. The long term trend is down, too. That\u2019s maybe one reason why people feel unhappy even though, technically, we\u2019re living through good times\u2014there are simply more people not working. (One reason the unemployment rate stayed low even though fewer people are working is that <\/span>not all people who want jobs are counted<\/span> as \u201cunemployed.\u201d)\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

        <\/p>\n

        \"\"<\/div>\n

        <\/span><\/p>\n

        MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/h3>\n

        \u2018This is the way\u2019: Elon Musk endorses Warren Buffett\u2019s famed 5-minute plan to fix the national debt<\/span> – Jacqueline Munis<\/span><\/p>\n

        Market guru Yardeni sees S&P 500 hitting 8,250 this year, highest among top Wall Street forecasters, as earnings bolster \u2018Roaring 2020s\u2019<\/span> – Jason Ma<\/span><\/p>\n

        Forget the Rust Belt or the Sun Belt. The \u2018Wired Belt\u2019 may be the next frontier of American political power<\/span> – Jake Angelo<\/span><\/p>\n

        World\u2019s largest oil company reports 25% profit jump as exports via Saudi Arabia\u2019s East-West Pipeline bypass Strait of Hormuz closure<\/span> – The Associated Press<\/span><\/p>\n

        The global economy is experiencing the largest capex cycle ever, with nearly $5 trillion seen by the end of the decade\u2014and it\u2019s not all AI spending<\/span> – Jason Ma<\/span><\/p>\n

        CHART OF THE DAY<\/h3>\n

        Trump\u2019s poll ratings are negative across the board<\/b><\/h2>\n

        <\/p>\n

        \"\"<\/div>\n

        <\/span><\/p>\n

        President Trump’s poll ratings are negative on immigration, the economy, trade, and inflation. The cost of living and the war with Iran are likely culprits, according to Deutsche Bank.<\/span><\/p>\n

        NUMBER OF THE DAY<\/h3>\n

        194 million<\/h2>\n

        The backlog in metric tons of all the cargo that has failed to make it through the Strait of Hormuz since it was blockaded. Volumes shipped through the Strait have declined 94% since the war, according to Bank of America Institute. \u201cEven if shipping was to resume shortly, this logjam may take significant time to resolve itself,\u201d BofA\u2019s Liz Everett Krisberg and David Tinsley told clients in a note.<\/span><\/p>\n

        \"\"<\/div>\n

        THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/h3>\n

        Keir Starmer to promise \u2018urgent\u2019 change as he fights for his political future<\/span> – FT<\/span><\/p>\n

        America’s job market optimism gap is the worst in the world<\/span> – Axios<\/span><\/p>\n

        Fortress Co-Founder Allegedly Extorted by Sexual Partner<\/span> – FT<\/span><\/p>\n

        Ships\u2019 Signals Go Haywire as Hormuz Strait Tensions Escalate<\/span> – Bloomberg<\/span><\/p>\n

        What Middle Powers Fear About the Trump-Xi Summit<\/span> – NYT<\/span><\/p>\n

        Iranian heiress\u2019s sneaky tactic to shield millions from husband in bitter $200M divorce battle<\/span> – NY Post<\/span><\/p>\n

        ONE MORE THING<\/h3>\n

        Study: Women are judged more harshly for using AI, for no apparent reason<\/b><\/h2>\n

        Women are perceived more negatively for using AI than men, <\/span>a new study has found<\/span>, using a comically elegant method for demonstrating double standards. In the experiment, people were asked to look at a r\u00e9sum\u00e9 and were told that the document was created with the help of AI. Half the subjects in the test were given a r\u00e9sum\u00e9 written by \u201cJames Clarke\u201d and the others were given r\u00e9sum\u00e9s from \u201cEmily Clarke.\u201d James\u2019 r\u00e9sum\u00e9 received a 97% approval rating while Emily\u2019s identical r\u00e9sum\u00e9 was rated at 76%.<\/span><\/p>\n

        In the feedback section, recipients of the woman\u2019s r\u00e9sum\u00e9 said, \u201cShe can\u2019t even write a CV herself\u2014not sure she has the skills to carry out the job.\u201d But a comment on James\u2019 r\u00e9sum\u00e9 said: \u201cHe just needed a bit of help putting it together.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

          \n
        • Solution:<\/b> Take the names and photos off r\u00e9sum\u00e9s when considering job candidates.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n

          #long #Strait #Hormuz #stays #closed #markets #remain #knifeedge #Deutsche #Bank #warns<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          Quick note: Subscribe to the forthcoming Fortune Gulf Brief. Every Tuesday, this new newsletter will deliver clear-eyed, authoritative intelligence on the deals, decisions, policies, and power shifts shaping one of… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2591,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[200,1430,4521,816,640,445,4520,1579,166,1222,709,1429,641,583],"class_list":["post-2590","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-news","tag-bank","tag-closed","tag-deutsche","tag-economics","tag-hormuz","tag-iran","tag-knifeedge","tag-long","tag-markets","tag-news","tag-remain","tag-stays","tag-strait","tag-warns"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2590","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2590"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2590\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2591"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2590"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2590"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2590"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}