In the weeks leading up to SpaceX\u2019s monster IPO, many Wall Street pros feared the deal represented an existential threat for Elon Musk\u2019s other giant, Tesla But after a month in the stock market, the outcome is far from clear.<\/p>\n
The truth is, for all the noise surrounding SpaceX, formally known as Space Exploration Technologies Corp, the stock has been pretty quiet. The shares were priced at $135 in the biggest initial public offering ever on June 11, and they opened for trading at $150 on June 12. The IPO captivated investors as the stock soared in its first few sessions. But it quickly came tumbling back down, closing Thursday at $152.16 after dropping below $150 for a couple of sessions.<\/p>\n
Tesla shares are also up slightly since the IPO. They opened on June 12 at $399.49, closed that day at $406.43, and now are at $406.55. Meanwhile, traders are actively debating if, when and how SpaceX and Tesla will merge to create one gigantic Musk conglomerate. Indeed, the speculation of some form of combination appears to be preventing the initial concerns about Tesla\u2019s \u201cMusk premium\u201d from hitting its stock price.<\/p>\n
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\u201cSpaceX is a phenomenon strictly because of the Elon Musk halo,\u201d said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. \u201cI have long referred to Tesla as a \u2018faith-based\u2019 stock, and that faith is well-earned after Musk made huge money for many of his most dedicated believers.\u201d<\/p>\n
History says investors shouldn\u2019t be too worried about SpaceX\u2019s muted showing in the market so far. After all, it\u2019s what happened to Tesla following its IPO 16 years ago. The shares opened for trading at $1.27 on June 29, 2010, and closed that day at $1.59. A month later were trading at around $1.35. They\u2019re up almost 30,000% since then.<\/p>\n
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Investors hope Musk can repeat or exceed that performance with SpaceX, which was founded more than two decades ago and waited much longer to go public than Tesla did. Though it\u2019s currently unprofitable, the company has a $2 trillion market capitalization, which is higher than Tesla\u2019s $1.5 trillion. It would be sixth most valuable company in the S&P 500 if it was a member of the index.<\/p>\n
Retail traders are still buying SpaceX\u2019s stock, which has yet to see a day of net negative flows, according to Vanda Research data as of Wednesday. And Wall Street is unflinchingly bullish on the shares. Of the 35 analysts tracked by Bloomberg who follow the company, 29 have buy ratings. The average price target of $236 implies a 55% gain over the next 12 months.<\/p>\n
\u201cSpaceX represents in our view the apex of civilisational ambition, oftentimes expressed in steel and fire, bending the arc of history to make humans multiplanetary,\u201d Deutsche Bank\u2019s Edison Yu wrote as he initiated coverage with a buy rating and $255 price target.<\/p>\n
The issue, however, is SpaceX\u2019s fundamentals don\u2019t come close to justifying its stock price. It\u2019s the same criticism skeptics often lob at Tesla, which trades at more than 180 times projected earnings over the next 12 months, making it the most expensive stock in the S&P 500. But at least the electric-vehicle maker has earnings \u2014 SpaceX lost $4.4 billion in 2025 and is projected to lose another $2.6 billion in 2026.<\/p>\n
\u201cFrom a valuation perspective, SpaceX does not make any sense,\u201d said Vikram Rai, portfolio manager and macro trader at First New York. \u201cIt\u2019s completely overvalued.\u201d<\/p>\n
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Of course, Tesla has successfully traded more on hopes and dreams than car sales for years. That\u2019s cutting both ways now, as investors focus more on what might happen between Musk\u2019s two ventures than what\u2019s actually happening inside the companies. For example, last week Tesla reported record second-quarter vehicle sales but the stock suffered its worst rout in a year.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat price action tells you exactly where the market\u2019s attention is,\u201d said Dmitry Shlyapnikov, an analyst at Horizon Investments. \u201cEarnings on July 22 will be a near-term test of whether management can show the robotaxi and storage businesses moving from narrative to actual numbers.\u201d<\/p>\n
Essentially, Tesla is stuck. If SpaceX\u2019s stock outperforms, it gobbles up attention and cash from the companies\u2019 overlapping investor base. But if it does poorly, that stymies the value of a future combination.<\/p>\n
\u201cA splashy SpaceX IPO and strong trading have clearly pulled Musk?focused retail and momentum money away from Tesla, yet the same richness in SpaceX\u2019s valuation underpins Tesla\u2019s perceived bailout floor,\u201d said Ivan Feinseth, chief investment officer at Tigress Financial Partners.<\/p>\n
However, Feinseth added that \u201cwhere Tesla actually trades between those poles still depends on Tesla?specific execution.\u201d<\/p>\n
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Regardless of what the stocks do, many Musk watchers assume some combination of the trillionaire\u2019s companies is inevitable, with SpaceX seen as most likely to take over Tesla. SpaceX is the larger, more-hyped firm, while Tesla\u2019s fundamentals have deteriorated. However, most analysts and investors don\u2019t see a tie-up coming for at least a year, giving Tesla time to change the narrative.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt could absolutely reassert itself as the more valuable company if robotaxis and robotics become meaningful businesses,\u201d said Haris Khurshid at Karobaar Capital, which owns Tesla shares through derivatives and SpaceX shares outright. \u201cIn a world where Tesla executes, it wouldn\u2019t even need SpaceX.\u201d<\/p>\n
Tech chart of the day<\/span><\/h3>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.moneyweb.co.za\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4603219401-555x477.jpg\")
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SK Hynix\u2019s Seoul-traded stock has recorded more than 50 sessions this year in which it moved at least 5% in either direction \u2014 compared with roughly 37 such sessions in all of last year, and approximately 44 over the preceding three years combined, according to Bloomberg calculations.<\/p>\n
\u00a9 2026 Bloomberg<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
#month #SpaceX #IPO #Teslas #stock #holding #ground<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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