{"id":11400,"date":"2026-07-09T18:23:41","date_gmt":"2026-07-09T18:23:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/?p=11400"},"modified":"2026-07-09T18:23:41","modified_gmt":"2026-07-09T18:23:41","slug":"att-may-be-left-out-of-the-starlink-deal-everyone-wants","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/?p=11400","title":{"rendered":"AT&T may be left out of the Starlink deal everyone wants"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

In the phone business, the most dangerous competitor is the one that doesn’t need your towers.<\/p>\n

For decades, the U.S. wireless market has operated like a private club. Three companies own the national networks, and everybody else, from Mint Mobile to your cable company’s phone plan, pays rent to get on them.<\/p>\n

That rent flows through a mobile virtual network operator agreement, known in the industry as an MVNO. It is a quiet, profitable arrangement. The host carrier collects wholesale fees, and the renter gets nationwide coverage without spending tens of billions of dollars on spectrum and cell towers.<\/p>\n

The unwritten rule of the club is simple. You rent to partners, never to predators.<\/p>\n

That rule is now being stress-tested by the most talked-about would-be renter in America, a company with its own rockets, its own satellites, and, as of last month, its own ticker symbol.<\/p>\n

Wall Street has started handicapping which of the three landlords blinks first. On July 8, Wells Fargo gave its answer, and it was rough news for one of them.<\/p>\n

The bank initiated coverage of AT&T (T) with an underweight rating and an $18 price target, calling the carrier the least likely of the big three to cut a deal with SpaceX’s (SPCX) Starlink, and the most exposed if the satellite giant decides to compete head-on instead.<\/p>\n

\n

Wells Fargo puts AT&T last in the race for a Starlink wireless deal<\/p>\n

Lucia Gajdosikova &sol; Getty Images<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Why every carrier is watching Starlink’s next move<\/strong><\/h2>\n

SpaceX went public on June 12 in the largest initial public offering (IPO) in history, pricing shares at $135 and finishing its first day with a market value north of $2 trillion, according to CNBC. Starlink, the satellite internet arm, is the only profitable piece of the whole operation.<\/p>\n

More Telecommunications<\/strong>:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Comcast targets frustrated T-Mobile customers with free offer<\/strong><\/li>\n
  • T-Mobile stands to benefit as rival files Chapter 11 bankruptcy<\/strong><\/li>\n
  • Amazon is finally taking the fight to Starlink<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    That profit engine needs somewhere to grow, and the U.S. wireless market is the obvious target. SpaceX has already committed about $17 billion to buy wireless spectrum from EchoStar (SATS), the raw material for a real mobile service. Starlink’s mobile offering recently passed 10 million subscribers, with a stated target of 25 million by the end of 2026, TheStreet highlighted.<\/p>\n

    The carriers have noticed. In May, AT&T, Verizon (VZ), and T-Mobile (TMUS) announced a joint venture to pool satellite spectrum, a defensive alliance among three companies that agree on almost nothing else. All three have also said, on the record, that they are not interested in renting Starlink their networks.<\/p>\n

    Related: Starlink just notched a win U.S. investors should watch<\/strong><\/p>\n

    MVNOs “make sense for us when it’s a TAM expansion,” T-Mobile CEO Srini Gopalan said on his company’s April earnings call, referring to growth in total addressable market, as reported by Fierce Network. Verizon and AT&T have offered versions of the same argument, and AT&T CEO John Stankey has consistently framed satellite as a complement to cell networks rather than a replacement.<\/p>\n

    Wells Fargo puts AT&T last in line for a Starlink deal<\/strong><\/h2>\n

    Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall launched coverage of all three carriers on July 8 with a cautious view of the whole sector, casting Starlink as a near-term winner in home broadband and a longer-term threat to the wireless business itself. Within that picture, AT&T is “least likely to strike a Starlink Mobile MVNO,” according to Investing.com.<\/p>\n

    Cahall attached hard numbers to the question everyone in telecom keeps dancing around. His estimated odds that each carrier eventually signs a Starlink MVNO:<\/p>\n

      \n
    • Verizon, 40%, the highest of the three, according to Investing.com<\/li>\n
    • T-Mobile, 30%, per the same Wells Fargo note<\/li>\n
    • AT&T, just 20%, the lowest odds in the group, the note said<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      I lined those probabilities up against what each CEO has said publicly this year, and the ranking makes uncomfortable sense for AT&T. Verizon has a new chief executive, Dan Schulman, who may look at a Starlink partnership differently than his predecessor did, the Wells Fargo note argued, per Investing.com. T-Mobile already runs a satellite texting service with Starlink. AT&T bet on rival satellite firm AST SpaceMobile and has the least obvious path to a handshake.<\/p>\n

      No deal means no wholesale revenue and no truce. “Outside of T’s fiber footprint we think competition will be fierce,” Cahall wrote in a note to clients, according to CNBC.<\/p>\n

      The $18 target implies nearly 15% downside from the stock’s July 7 close, on top of a roughly 15% slide already booked in 2026. The call also breaks from the pack, since more than half of the 29 analysts covering AT&T still rate the stock a hold or better, based on LSEG data cited by CNBC.<\/p>\n

      AT&T’s fiber bet now has to carry the full load<\/strong><\/h2>\n

      Strip away the satellite drama and Wells Fargo’s argument comes down to one sentence. Without a Starlink deal in its back pocket, AT&T “needs fiber to outperform,” per Seeking Alpha.<\/p>\n

      Related: AT&T leaves rivals flat-footed as bankrupt carrier folds<\/strong><\/p>\n

      The company has certainly spent like it believes that. AT&T expects to reach about 40 million fiber locations by the end of this year and more than 60 million by 2030, closed its purchase of Lumen’s consumer fiber business in February, and agreed to pay $23 billion for its own slice of EchoStar spectrum.<\/p>\n

      Inside AT&T’s fiber footprint, that bundle of home internet plus wireless is a genuine moat. Outside it, which is still most of the country, the company is left selling a phone plan against a rival that launches its own rockets.<\/p>\n

      My read is that the market is quietly repricing what used to be AT&T’s safest quality, its predictability. This is a stock millions of retirees hold for the dividend, and that dividend rests on wireless cash flow Wells Fargo now calls the most exposed in the industry.<\/p>\n

      There is a consolation prize in all of this, and it lands in your pocket rather than your portfolio. A fourth network competitor with its own satellites and deep pockets is exactly the kind of pressure that, historically, shows up as lower phone bills.<\/p>\n

      For AT&T shareholders, the watch list is short. If Verizon’s new boss warms to Starlink first, the club’s unwritten rule dies, and the carrier with the lowest odds of a deal is left defending its turf with fiber alone.<\/p>\n

      The most dangerous competitor doesn’t need your towers. Wells Fargo just told investors it may not need AT&T’s signature, either.<\/p>\n

      Related: Oppenheimer downgrades AT&T stock on SpaceX threat<\/strong><\/p>\n

      #ATampT #left #Starlink #deal<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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