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It seems U.S.-Iran negotiations aren\u2019t going as planned for either side, with fresh hostilities flaring this week, sending oil prices higher once again. For analysts, the question is whether this is the tried-and-tested White House method of pressure and de-escalation, or whether the conflict is spiraling.<\/p>\n
At the time of writing, Brent crude is back up to $77 a barrel\u2014significantly down from the May high of $113 but still elevated compared to February, when the war started.<\/p>\n
Despite a supposed ceasefire, the U.S. and Iran have traded strikes on numerous occasions this week. Oil tankers are now reluctant to travel through the Strait of Hormuz, stalling supplies as a result.<\/p>\n
Wall Street, on balance, is looking ahead despite the geopolitical bumps. Markets are still up month-to-month, and while the VIX volatility index is creeping higher, it is still some way off the levels reached at the outset of the conflict.<\/p>\n
Some might argue that optimism bias is the factor settling the markets\u2014others suggest it\u2019s because analysts may have a sense of d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu.<\/p>\n
The turbulent negotiations in the Middle East are \u201ceerily similar\u201d to Trump\u2019s methods in dealing with Beijing in his first term, Oxford Economics\u2019s Ben May wrote in a note yesterday.<\/p>\n
May, director of global macro research, said that \u201cdeep distrust between the U.S. and Iran meant bumps in the road were inevitable,\u201d echoing the cycle of flare-ups and de-escalation markets endured from 2018 and 2019.<\/p>\n
In Trump\u2019s first term, a tit-for-tat trade war initiated by tariffs from D.C. (sound familiar?) escalated to the point that vast swathes of Chinese imports were subject to increased duties. China responded in kind until Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping reached the \u201cPhase One\u201d trade agreement in 2020. The agreement, the U.S. government said, was the first step in rebalancing trade with China and resolving structural issues.<\/p>\n
In his first term, Trump struck a firm tone that China was \u201cripping off\u201d the U.S. and that action had to be taken, but he maintained that he could reach a trade deal. <\/p>\n
When it comes to Iran in his second term, Trump has oscillated between claiming negotiations with Iran are a \u201cwaste of time\u201d but has also insisted that the conflict wouldn\u2019t return to all-out war. <\/p>\n
\u201cThe question is whether the latest developments merely represent a bump in the road or if we\u2019re emerging from the eye of the storm,\u201d May noted. Despite harsh criticism, Trump \u201cmaintained an off-ramp by noting that U.S. negotiators would continue talks with Iran, suggesting the truce hasn\u2019t been irrevocably broken.\u201d <\/p>\n
This is a \u201csimilar playbook\u201d to China, May adds, saying: \u201cThis is reflected in market volatility and the associated difficulty in pricing in the relative likelihood of different scenarios playing out.\u201d<\/p>\n
The current tipping point makes it difficult for economists to establish whether oil prices\u2014and as a result, inflation\u2014are in danger of spiking higher once again. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt was always going to be hard to have strong conviction about reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the path for oil prices in the baseline forecast, leaving risks weighted to the upside in the near term,\u201d May wrote. \u201cThe latest developments probably increase the risk of a scenario akin to our sustained disruption and intensifying war scenarios, but they haven\u2019t yet provided grounds for major wholesale adjustments to our baseline forecast.\u201d <\/p>\n
Oxford Economics\u2019s baseline forecast is that $73 per barrel by the end of Q3 and $70 by the end of the year\u2014roughly in line with the pre-war price.<\/p>\n
This isn\u2019t an unreasonable expectation, May adds, as long as both the U.S. and Iran continue to leave negotiation as an option on the table, highlighting: \u201cWhile both countries will be keen to consider themselves as winners, it\u2019s in neither side\u2019s interests for traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to grind to a complete standstill for a sustained period.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhile the balance of risks might be slightly more skewed towards a\u00a0more adverse scenario\u00a0materializing, it feels too early to conclude that a major and sustained surge in oil prices \u2026 is more likely than not.\u201d <\/p>\n<\/div>\n
#USIran #War #Trump #similar #playbook #China #term<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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