{"id":10938,"date":"2026-07-07T04:11:19","date_gmt":"2026-07-07T04:11:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/?p=10938"},"modified":"2026-07-07T04:11:19","modified_gmt":"2026-07-07T04:11:19","slug":"wall-street-no-longer-believes-that-kevin-warsh-can-do-what-trump-wants","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/?p=10938","title":{"rendered":"Wall Street no longer believes that Kevin Warsh can do what Trump wants"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

Quick note: <\/strong>Subscribe to the forthcoming Fortune Gulf Brief<\/strong>. Every Tuesday, this new newsletter will deliver clear-eyed, authoritative intelligence on the deals, decisions, policies, and power shifts shaping one of the world\u2019s most consequential regions, written for the people who need to act on it. Sign up here.<\/p>\n

\n

THE MARKETS<\/h3>\n

Investors are really enjoying the wall of worry<\/b><\/h2>\n
    \n
  • S&P 500 futures<\/b> were up 0.21% this morning. The index was up 0.58% yesterday\u2014another record high at 7,444.25.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  • In Europe,<\/b> the Stoxx 600 was up 0.21% in early trading and the U.K.\u2019s FTSE 100 was up 0.14% before lunch.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Asia: <\/b>South Korea\u2019s KOSPI was up 1.75%. Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 was down 0.98%. India\u2019s Nifty 50 was up 1.36%. China\u2019s CSI 300 was down 1.68%.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Brent crude<\/b> sank to $106 per barrel this morning.<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Bitcoin<\/b> slipped to $79.7K.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    <\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/div>\n

    <\/b><\/p>\n

    Traders no longer believe Warsh can do what Trump wants<\/b><\/h2>\n

    It\u2019s not if, but when. That\u2019s what Wall Street\u2014and the markets\u2014are saying about Kevin Warsh hiking interest rates.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Until a few weeks ago, and certainly prior to the war with Iran, investors had priced in the U.S. Federal Reserve delivering a schedule of interest rate cuts over the next year. After this week\u2019s inflation reports, all of that is now off the table.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    The Consumer Price Index (the main inflation gauge) for April came in at 3.8%, and the Producer Price Index (inflation in wholesale prices) came in at 6%\u2014both above expectations.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The highly reliable <\/span>Fed Funds Futures market<\/span>\u2014where speculators bet on future interest rates\u2014shows that traders believe it\u2019s a near-certainty that the Fed will stay on hold until September. After that, dissenting bets tilt toward a rate hike. Prediction market <\/span>Kalshi has 31% of bettors<\/span> saying there will be a hike by the end of the year.<\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/div>\n

    <\/span><\/p>\n

    On Wednesday, the risk premium on 30-year U.S. bonds <\/span>rose above 5%<\/span> for the first time since 2007. Investors think interest will rise in the future, in other words.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Notes from economists at a range of investment platforms reviewed by <\/span>Fortune<\/span><\/i> show that analysts now think the next move is hold-or-hike. Almost no one thinks new Fed chairman Warsh can implement a cut as his first move. The unanswered question in this scenario will be, how much patience will President Trump display if Warsh can\u2019t deliver?<\/span><\/p>\n

    ONE BIG THING<\/h3>\n

    They\u2019re stealing the water<\/b><\/h2>\n

    In the first week of May, two data center developments, one in Arizona and another in Georgia, were caught taking public water without authorization. In both cases, data center developers consumed water they were prohibited from taking in communities experiencing water stress, and in both cases it was the residents who discovered it. When residents complained of low water pressure, they unknowingly tipped off regulators to an escalating conflict over data center water use in areas fraught with depleting water supplies, <\/span>Fortune<\/span><\/i>\u2019s Catherina Gioino reports<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n

    In 2023, U.S. data centers directly consumed 17.4 billion gallons of water. That is projected to rise to between 38 and 73 billion gallons by 2028, according to the EPA. In Texas alone, a study estimated data centers would use up to 399 billion gallons by 2030\u2014or the equivalent of drawing down Lake Mead, the largest reservoir in the country, by more than 16 feet in a single year.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    The fighting is so fierce that Google even funded a city\u2019s lawsuit <\/span>against<\/span><\/i> a local newspaper that tried to obtain water-usage figures through a public records request, arguing the data was a trade secret.<\/span><\/p>\n

    CRISIS, WHAT CRISIS?<\/h3>\n

    The jet fuel shortage is a myth, this CEO says<\/b><\/h2>\n

    There is no jet fuel shortage, according to Greg Raiff, CEO of private jet services company Elevate Jet. The Strait of Hormuz may be closed, locking away more than 20% of the world’s supply of jet fuel. But Raiff hasn’t seen a lack of jet fuel. “Those stories are largely politically driven by governmental authorities who are trying to pressure an end to the war, and no better way to get people out than tell them that they can’t get to their summer holiday,” <\/span>he told <\/span>Fortune<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

    “Aviation is up this year in terms of total demand, total hours flown, total volume of arrivals and departures, on a global basis,\u201d he says. According to ESGauge, the analytics firm, 48.8% of S&P 500 companies now allow their CEOs to have private use of the corporate jet, up from just 6% in 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

    “We are in no risk of running out of jet fuel anytime soon,” Raiff said.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    So why are commercial airlines cancelling thousands of seats across the globe? Because airlines want to weasel out of running their less lucrative routes, he says. To keep their “slots” at airports, airlines have to contractually commit to running a minimum number of flights on certain routes. Normally that is no problem. But with the price of jet fuel double what it was before the war, suddenly some of those routes aren’t profitable. So the airlines have successfully declared “force majeure,” allowing them to cut their unprofitable flights while keeping their slots, he argues.<\/span><\/p>\n

    MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/h3>\n

    Boeing lost China. Trump\u2014and 500 jets\u2014may be about to win it back<\/span> – Shawn Tully<\/span><\/p>\n

    Fervo becomes clean energy\u2019s biggest-ever IPO with $10B valuation\u2014powered by the earth\u2019s heat and AI\u2019s hunger<\/span> – Jordan Blum<\/span><\/p>\n

    Top economist says $39 trillion national debt leaves government worse prepared for recession than ever<\/span> – Eva Roytburg<\/span><\/p>\n

    The crypto industry\u2019s Clarity Act hits a critical juncture: Where things stand going into Senate markup<\/span> – Jack Kubinec<\/span><\/p>\n

    Job-hopping is now the fastest path to becoming a CEO\u2014and company loyalty may actually hold you back<\/span> – Tristan Bove<\/span><\/p>\n

    Steve Jobs had a \u2018beer test\u2019 he used for interviews at Apple\u2014if he didn\u2019t want to drink with you, you didn\u2019t get the job<\/span> – Orianna Rosa Royle<\/span><\/p>\n

    CHART OF THE DAY<\/h3>\n

    CEOs are blaming AI for layoffs. The data says they’re not telling the truth.<\/b><\/h2>\n

    <\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/div>\n

    <\/b><\/p>\n

    There\u2019s an anxious debate about how many workers\u2019 jobs might be replaced by AI. There is some evidence that <\/span>job losses are occurring in industries sensitive to AI<\/span>, such as software. But Ohsung Kwon and his team at Wells Fargo crunched the numbers to see whether job losses were occurring in industries that have heavily adopted AI. Turns out, there is no relationship between the two. \u201cBeyond the talk, there is no statistical evidence that AI is broadly disrupting the labor market,\u201d he said in a recent note. \u201cWe believe companies are citing AI more as an excuse to right-size, rather than actually replacing workers.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

    NUMBER OF THE DAY<\/h3>\n

    24%<\/h2>\n

    The rise of the price of coffee in the U.S. since January of last year. \u201c<\/b>Since U.S. President Trump took office, coffee prices have risen 24%, beef over 19%, gasoline over 19%, and vegetables 10.5%. These are price increases that consumers notice and remember,\u201d UBS\u2019s Paul Donovan noted recently. Trump has placed <\/span>tariffs on coffee imports<\/span> even though the U.S. does not, and cannot, grow its own coffee.<\/span><\/p>\n

    THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/h3>\n

    Self-report fraud and walk free, New York prosecutors tell Wall Street<\/span> – FT<\/span><\/p>\n

    Five takeaways from the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing so far<\/span> – CNBC<\/span><\/p>\n

    Hedge Funds Are Making a Killing in the \u2018Golden Age\u2019 of AI Hardware<\/span> – WSJ<\/span><\/p>\n

    Ship Taken in Gulf of Oman and Heading to Iran, UK Navy Says<\/span> – Bloomberg<\/span><\/p>\n

    China changed spelling of Marco Rubio\u2019s name to avoid implementing sanctions ahead of Trump-Xi meeting<\/span> – NY Post<\/span><\/p>\n

    ONE MORE THING<\/h3>\n

    The man who spent 8 years building Google Sheets made a clone with AI in less than a week<\/b><\/h2>\n

    Zach Lloyd was a principal engineer at Google before leaving to found Warp, an AI agent development platform. \u201cRecently, my team built a working clone of Google Sheets in a few days,\u201d <\/span>he said in a column for <\/span>Fortune<\/span><\/i>. \u201cI spent nearly eight years at Google \u2026 growing Sheets from a five-person experiment to hundreds of millions of users. Building it took years, dozens of exceptionally talented engineers, and the kind of resources that were only available to the world\u2019s biggest companies.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

    \u201cWatching a small team spin up something functionally comparable in less than a week was, to put it mildly, clarifying.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

    #Wall #Street #longer #believes #Kevin #Warsh #Trump<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Quick note: Subscribe to the forthcoming Fortune Gulf Brief. Every Tuesday, this new newsletter will deliver clear-eyed, authoritative intelligence on the deals, decisions, policies, and power shifts shaping one of… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10939,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[12623,816,12574,445,1658,758,166,1222,379,260,1152,1659],"class_list":["post-10938","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-news","tag-believes","tag-economics","tag-fortune-500-digest-weekday","tag-iran","tag-kevin","tag-longer","tag-markets","tag-news","tag-street","tag-trump","tag-wall","tag-warsh"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10938","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10938"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10938\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10939"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10938"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10938"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10938"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}