OpenAI confidentially <\/span>filed IPO papers<\/span> with the SEC yesterday, setting the stage for yet another massive tech company float later in the year. You can read OpenAI\u2019s statement <\/span>here<\/span>. It\u2019s very short. Here is the entire thing, verbatim:<\/span><\/p>\n The most interesting aspect of that statement are the words \u201cwe expect it to leak,\u201d which suggest the company was rushed into making the statement\u2014or at least <\/span>didn\u2019t want<\/span><\/i> to be rushed into making it and thus got its retaliation in first, so to speak. The statement could also be a response to Anthropic announcing it had confidentially filed last week. Neither of them had to say they did this publicly, but they both did. They seem to be racing each other to go public first. The valuation is expected to be greater than $1 trillion, <\/strong>per the FT<\/em><\/span>.<\/em> It was most recently <\/span>valued at $852 billion<\/span>.<\/span><\/p>\n That would make it the third $1 trillion-plus IPO expected this year, following SpaceX ($1.78 trillion) and Anthropic (last valued at $965 billion). The Wall Street Journal<\/em> has a great story about the vast firehose of money pouring into AI right now. $159 billion in bond funding this year alone, for instance, including some <\/span>really offbeat vehicles<\/span> such as Google\u2019s 100-year bond, at a yield of 6.05%, denominated in British pounds sterling.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX are all asking investors a similar question: Are you willing to buy stock in our massively valued, unprofitable, speculative business models, which rely on a ton of assumptions about the future that have yet to be borne out? Some on Wall Street are saying no. <\/span>Fortune<\/span><\/i> received an email this morning from one CEO at an asset investor with $1 billion-plus under management who says he wouldn\u2019t touch \u2018em for six months. (Presumably that\u2019s to watch for the effect of the end of the executive lockup periods, after which insiders will be allowed to sell their stock.)\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n “Markets face the test of yet another superheavyweight firm listing to test demand for these highly valued companies that promise to reshape not just the investing landscape, but the entirety of human society,\u201d IG\u2019s Chris Beauchamp said in an email. \u201cThe parallels with the early 2010s when the previous wave of loss-making tech [companies went public] are clear, but this time the stakes are much higher and the risks much greater.”<\/span><\/p>\n Clients are asking whether \u201cthe upcoming wall of issuance from mega cap IPOs\u201d will be too much for investors to absorb, thus dragging down the market, according to Inigo Fraser Jenkins of AllianceBernstein. SpaceX\u2019s valuation is $1.77 trillion, after all. OpenAI will be another $1 trillion-plus. \u201cIs this, we are asked, one of those events one will look back on and ask why it wasn\u2019t an obvious sell signal at the time?\u201d he said in a note to clients seen by <\/span>Fortune<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n That\u2019s not what traders should worry about, he argues. Only a fraction of SpaceX\u2019s stock is being offered to the public, about $75 billion worth. That\u2019s less than the rate at which corporate America buys back its own stock, removing it from the market to boost the price.<\/span><\/p>\n Instead, investors should worry about the business models of Anthropic and OpenAI, he wrote: \u201cThe other worry is\u2026the increased circularity of the whole thing. Roughly one-third of tech sector earnings derive from cross-holdings in companies such as the ones hoping to IPO, such as Alphabet\u2019s holding in Anthropic. Neither of these aspects should be things that investors can countenance with equanimity.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n After throwing a tantrum on Friday and early Monday morning, global stock markets largely rose in Asia and Europe today after the S&P 500 closed up yesterday. Traders seem to be pinning their hopes on President Trump\u2019s insistence that a peace deal with Iran is imminent and Iran\u2019s promise to stop attacking Israel. Oil prices sank on the news. Israel, however, is continuing to strike positions in Lebanon it believes are occupied by Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy terror group.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Seven out of 10 red flags<\/b> that signal impending bear markets\u00a0 have now been triggered, according to Bank of America\u2019s Savita Subramanian. That\u2019s the average number that were triggered prior to previous bear markets. Those red flags include things like surveys showing overconfidence in stocks and technical measures of tightening credit conditions. \u201cOur S&P 500 year-end target of 7100 suggests 6% downside from here,\u201d she told clients.<\/span><\/p>\n The price of Brent crude oil fell sharply over the last 24 hours and was sitting at $92 per barrel this morning, after President Trump <\/span>insisted<\/span> (again) that a peace deal with Iran was imminent that would open the Strait of Hormuz \u201cimmediately upon signing\u201d in two or three days. Here\u2019s <\/span>what he\u2019s saying<\/span> on <\/span>social media<\/span>:<\/span><\/p>\n The conflict with Iran caused the price of oil to rise but it has not produced a physical <\/span>scarcity <\/span><\/i>of oil, at least in Europe and the U.S. That may be about to change, according to two sets of Wall Street analysts. Until recently, the world was relatively well cushioned against a negative oil supply shock because global inventories were well supplied. The U.S. has continued to export oil. And releases from various strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) mostly matched the losses from the Gulf, Lisa Shalett and her team at Morgan Stanley said in a note this week.<\/span><\/p>\n It has also been helpful that high prices have cut demand for the black stuff by about 4 million or 5 million barrels per day, roughly 4-5% of pre-war supply, according to Goldman Sachs\u2019 Daan Struyven.<\/span><\/p>\n The situation in China is about to change, however.<\/b> \u201cChina was especially well inventoried\u201d before the war, even though its oil imports have been cut from 13 million barrels per day to about 7.5 million today, according to Shalett. The Chinese have bought little oil on the international markets since the war began but, as their stocks decline, \u201cthere is a meaningful chance that Chinese crude buyers will return to the market for the September delivery.\u201d \u201cIf the strait is not reopened by the time of this \u2018SPR cliff,\u2019 the market could tighten meaningfully,\u201d she advised. \u201cThe asymmetric risk of this stagflation scenario is not fully priced.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cOperational floor\u201d: <\/b>At Macquarie, Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry argue that \u201cthe U.S. administration would want to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force at some point, presumably as the global visible inventory of crude oil depletes below threshold viable levels…there is an operational floor level for inventories\u2014the level needed to be sustained to ensure that pipelines are functioning and refineries are operating. According to most estimates, operational depletion could be reached in H2 2026.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n How Michael Saylor\u2019s preferred stock gamble could trigger a death spiral for Strategy<\/span> – Shawn Tully<\/span><\/p>\n Gen-Z hiring manager says CEOs are right about her generation\u2019s \u2018attitude\u2019 problem after a candidate took the interview from her phone<\/span> – Orianna Rosa Royle<\/span><\/p>\n Anduril CEO Brian Schimpf says economic warfare is the \u2018new normal\u2019 for military conflicts\u2014and the U.S. needs to get serious<\/span> – Lily Mae Lazarus<\/span><\/p>\n Twitch CEO: Social media has become \u2018antisocial\u2019 and can\u2019t match the shared, human connection of livestreaming<\/span> – Sebastian Herrera<\/span><\/p>\n Your career needs a \u2018gym membership\u2019 to keep up with continuous AI advancements, says Campus founder Tade Oyerinde<\/span> – Amanda Gerut<\/span><\/p>\n Anthropic\u2019s Boris Cherny, creator of Claude Code, says there are days he manages tens of thousands of AI agents at once<\/span> – Sharon Goldman<\/span><\/p>\n The global airline industry\u2019s profits could be cut in half as it braces for its worst year since the pandemic<\/span> – Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez<\/span><\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n One of the most confusing dietary contradictions is that <\/span>eating<\/span><\/i> fruit is good for you but <\/span>drinking<\/span><\/i> fruit juice is bad for you. Whole fruit contains a lot of fibre and pulp (good), whereas juice strips all that out, leaving you with a glass of sugar and calories (bad).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The Bank of America Institute ranked drinks by calorific content to show that fruit juice is probably a worse choice than full-fat cola.<\/span><\/p>\n The percentage of applicants Goldman Sachs accepted into its summer internship program this year, <\/span>according to Fortune\u2019s<\/em> Nick Lichtenberg<\/span>. This year, the class of 2,500 interns comes from more than 500 universities, includes over 90 nationalities, and speaks 70-plus languages.<\/span><\/p>\n Trump says Iran deal could be reached in \u2018two or three days\u2019 and Strait of Hormuz will reopen \u2018immediately\u2019<\/span> – CNBC<\/span><\/p>\n Behind the scenes: How Israel and Iran nearly pulled Trump back to war<\/span> – Axios<\/span><\/p>\n Trump Wants to Call the Shots. But in Iran, He Keeps Hitting His Limits<\/span> – NYT<\/span><\/p>\n The Fight to Break China\u2019s Rare-Earth Dominance Moves to a New Front in Brazil<\/span> – WSJ<\/span><\/p>\n What Rolling Back Brexit Would Mean for the UK Economy<\/span> – Bloomberg<\/span><\/p>\n Pima County Sheriff issues alert for kidnapping suspect 7 miles from Nancy Guthrie\u2019s home<\/span> – NY Post<\/span><\/p>\n Somali referee Artan barred from entering US<\/span> – BBC<\/span><\/p>\n Gen-Z students\u2014digital natives who grew up on vertical video\u2014are now arriving at college-level classrooms unable to complete the assigned reading, <\/span>reports <\/span>Fortune<\/span><\/i>\u2019s Preston Fore<\/span>. One shocked professor said some young adults show up to class unable to read a single sentence. \u201cIt\u2019s not even an inability to critically think,\u201d Jessica Hooten Wilson, a professor of great books and humanities at Pepperdine University, told him. \u201cIt\u2019s an inability to read sentences.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Nearly half of all Americans did not read a single book in 2025, with the habit plunging some 40% over the last decade. Americans aged 18 to 29 read, on average, just 5.8 books in 2025, according to YouGov. The solution: universities are changing the way they teach literature, hand-holding students at first until they\u2019re capable of digesting the traditional 25- to 40-page reading assignments that were common prior to the internet.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n #expect #leak #OpenAI #frontrunning #narrative #trillion #IPO<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" OpenAI confidentially filed IPO papers with the SEC yesterday, setting the stage for yet another massive tech company float later in the year. You can read OpenAI\u2019s statement here. It\u2019s… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10886,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[816,93,12574,12576,2040,445,12575,166,5607,1222,735,771],"class_list":["post-10885","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-finance-news","tag-economics","tag-expect","tag-fortune-500-digest-weekday","tag-frontrunning","tag-ipo","tag-iran","tag-leak","tag-markets","tag-narrative","tag-news","tag-openai","tag-trillion"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10885","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10885"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10885\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10886"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10885"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10885"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10885"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
<\/span><\/p>\nWill investors be willing to swallow three $1 trillion-plus IPOs at once?<\/b><\/h2>\n
Investors should worry about \u201cthe increased circularity of the whole [AI] thing,\u201d AllianceBernstein says<\/b><\/h2>\n
THE MARKETS<\/h3>\n
After the tantrum, cooler heads prevail<\/b><\/h2>\n
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Bank of America: \u201c6% downside from here\u201d<\/b><\/h2>\n
IRAN<\/h3>\n
Trump urges peace as oil stocks dwindle globally<\/b><\/h2>\n
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<\/div>\nThe hidden oil crisis: China’s reserves are running dry<\/b><\/h2>\n
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MORE FROM FORTUNE<\/h3>\n
CHART OF THE DAY<\/h3>\n
Drinks ranked by calories<\/b><\/h2>\n
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<\/div>\nNUMBER OF THE DAY<\/h3>\n
Less than 1%<\/h2>\n
THE FRONT PAGES TODAY<\/h3>\n
ONE MORE THING<\/h3>\n
The brains of Gen-Z college students, rewired by doomscrolling, have left them with \u201can inability to read sentences\u201d<\/b><\/h2>\n
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