{"id":10379,"date":"2026-07-03T09:37:57","date_gmt":"2026-07-03T09:37:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/?p=10379"},"modified":"2026-07-03T09:37:57","modified_gmt":"2026-07-03T09:37:57","slug":"gold-us-politics-and-oil-shocks-decoding-the-gold-markets-next-moves","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fintechpulse8.com\/?p=10379","title":{"rendered":"Gold, US politics and oil shocks: Decoding the gold market\u2019s next moves"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><\/p>\n<div>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/iframe.iono.fm\/e\/1692124?layout=modern\" width=\"100%\" height=\"170\" frameborder=\"0\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>You can also listen to this podcast on iono.fm here.<\/p>\n<p><strong>SIMON BROWN:<\/strong> I\u2019m chatting now with Taylor Burnette. He is a research lead: Americas, for the World Gold Council. The Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026 has just been published.<\/p>\n<p>Taylor, appreciate the time. Gold \u2013 I think a dozen all-time highs this year; it got above $5\u00a0500\/oz intraday in late January. Since then it\u2019s been under pressure.<\/p>\n<p>But the biggest story \u2013 if I zoom out and worry less about perhaps a six-month chart but look at one year or two years \u2013 three years ago gold was sub-$2\u00a0000\/oz and it has doubled in the three years.<\/p>\n<p><strong>TAYLOR BURNETTE: <\/strong>Yes. Thank you again for having me. I think that\u2019s a really good point to think about. We all get stuck in this the short-term noise and all the other the trading dynamics that have happened in the near term.<\/p>\n<p>But to your point, look at where we were two or three years ago. Even if we take the last half of \u201925 and the first half of this year, gold is still one of the best-performing assets.<\/p>\n<p>So, while the correction has been notable and we\u2019ve been talking about it a lot, and you hear it in the media, it was also somewhat warranted. We\u2019ve got to have a little bit of mean reversion. We\u2019ve got to settle down. We\u2019ve got to bake in the rest of the news.<\/p>\n<p>Read:<br \/>World Gold Council moves to modernise gold trading as demand surges<br \/>Goldman says central banks to step up gold-buying, aiding prices<br \/>Could we see US$-priced ETFs on the JSE?<\/p>\n<p>Essentially what it was showing is that everything, up until the precious metals selloff in late January or early February to the US-Iran conflict in late February going into March \u2013 all that started to get priced in, all that run-up. You kind of had an idea that the geopolitical risk was playing out and everything was getting baked in.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>So yes, now that we look at the current gold price, right now it is essentially baking in everything that has already happened \u2013 all the rest of the drawdown that has happened.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>And so yes, it\u2019s been a great two, three years, and it\u2019s been a little choppier in the last two or three months. But overall, I think to your point, I would say we\u2019ve got to remember the long term. We\u2019ve got to remember where we came from, and we still believe the long-term story is intact for gold.<\/p>\n<p>Read: Gold wavers as traders weigh Trump\u2019s deadline to strike Iran<\/p>\n<p><strong>SIMON BROWN:<\/strong> Hundred percent. And your analysis from the World Gold Council, saying that if conditions do not change materially \u2013 and I appreciate there\u2019s a big \u2018if\u2019 there, but let\u2019s take that as a given \u2013 you\u2019re looking at gold trading around $4 100\/oz, give or take 5%, but sort of $4 100, all things being equal.<\/p>\n<p><strong>TAYLOR BURNETTE: <\/strong>Yes, yes. Here at the Gold Council we don\u2019t give a specific price forecast \u2013 that maybe you\u2019ll see a lot of the sell-side and traditional research houses put together. But yes, we like to put things in ranges and bands and kind of give an idea of where we think things could go.<\/p>\n<p>And to your point, the macro or base case kind of to a degree, which we don\u2019t really use \u2013 we just call this more the macro consensus \u2013 everything that\u2019s being baked in, to your point plus or minus 5%. We may trade sideways here. And then if things deteriorate more, then there\u2019s a case for the upside and we can dive into that. Or if things go the other way there\u2019s a downside.<\/p>\n<p>Read:<br \/>Gold drops below $4 000 as US-Iran tensions raise inflation risk<br \/>Gold drops to near $4 000 on stronger dollar, Fed rate outlook<\/p>\n<p>So the upside we would say anywhere from 5% to 20%, and the downside anywhere from another 5% to 15%. But ultimately it\u2019s been nice to see; even on the range-bound macro market consensus view, what\u2019s been good to see is a lot of support around that $4\u00a0000 level.<\/p>\n<p>Also worth noting is a lot of that buying does tend to happen in Asia trading session hours or in Europe. And so you\u2019re starting to see different parts of the world. It really highlights [how] we look at things.<\/p>\n<p>Being based in the US everybody wants to talk about what\u2019s going on here, but gold is a global asset. You\u2019ve got to look at it through why other regions and why other countries are buying gold, and why central banks are doing what they\u2019re doing. So yes, it\u2019s been really good to see that.<\/p>\n<p>If we see selling in the US sessions, we typically start to see buying the next day out of Asia and then in Europe.<\/p>\n<p>Read:<br \/>Gold bulls gut outlooks as Deutsche Bank follows Goldman\u2019s cut<br \/>A gold miner is set to reboot a Hong Kong listing type not seen in 12 years<\/p>\n<p><strong>SIMON BROWN: <\/strong>Yes. I found that a fascinating part of the research report. Pushing it higher \u2013 for gold to sort of go beyond the band that you\u2019re talking about \u2013 this really is around \u2018watch the economy\u2019. And if we see worsening geopolitical conditions, deterioration there, a reversal in interest rate expectations, these are the classic drivers for gold.<\/p>\n<p><strong>TAYLOR BURNETTE: <\/strong>Exactly. And all these sorts of drivers are always going to be more of your near-term impacts and effects. That\u2019s why we started to see this most recent pullback.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Well, I was saying earlier we believe the long term story remains intact \u2013 central bank diversification, broader portfolio diversification, things like that.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>But to your point on what could push it higher, at the beginning of the year the whole story was okay, the Fed\u2019s got to cut, the Fed\u2019s got to cut, the Fed\u2019s got to cut. Then we have the oil-price shock and we have the conflict. And then you almost have this perfect storm which hit all at once. That\u2019s what drove gold back down lower.<\/p>\n<p>Read: Gold boosted by Fed rate-cut bets, report on Trump war comments<\/p>\n<p>So if we continue to see more geopolitical tensions rearise \u2013 it doesn\u2019t necessarily mean the US and Iran or the Middle East, it could be resumption of things going on in Europe or anywhere else, places we\u2019re nor even thinking of \u2013 any of those sorts of shocks should again help push gold higher.<\/p>\n<p>If we see a reversal of the interest-rate expectations, that should also be another positive. At the beginning of the year we were sitting here looking at the Fed and they said, hey, we have a dual mandate.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s look at rates, also look at inflation and let\u2019s look at labour. Labour shouldn\u2019t show great signs. But then you have an oil-price shock, and inflation is moving higher. So all of a sudden rate cuts are off the table, rate hikes are on the table, and obviously higher opportunity costs make gold less attractive.<\/p>\n<p>Read:<br \/>Gold jumps as peace deal optimism counters hawkish Fed<br \/>Gold steady near $5 000 as investors weigh Fed rate-cut path<\/p>\n<p>But again, as things are starting to stand, you begin to hear some commentary from the Fed that maybe this is transitory \u2013 whether or not you believe the whole transitory narrative and wording of things. But essentially it\u2019s hey, we have to see the data. We\u2019ve got to see how it\u2019s going.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s also seeing how this Fed acts. We\u2019ve been so accustomed to years with [Jerome] Powell, and it\u2019ll be really interesting to see how [Kevin] Warsh handles everything. I also would always caveat that it\u2019s [not] one person changing it at the helm. It is a committee. So it\u2019s important to look at what everybody is saying, what everybody\u2019s thinking.<\/p>\n<p>So to your point, yes, it\u2019s worsening economic or geopolitical conditions, a reversal in interest-rate expectations and, then again, just long-term investor participation. As I was saying, there are signs that people are stepping in to buy these dips, and that\u2019s really helpful.<\/p>\n<p><strong>SIMON BROWN:<\/strong> And of course central bankers have been big buyers. I was going to say \u2018over the last few years\u2019, but truthfully it\u2019s about a decade or so that they\u2019ve been up in their buying.<\/p>\n<p>You had the Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026 earlier in the year, and central bankers are saying, yes, this is likely to continue. We saw a bit of selling; we saw some swaps in Q1. But in the longer-term trend, central banks are still there and still going to be buyers.<\/p>\n<p><strong>TAYLOR BURNETTE: <\/strong>Yes, yes. I would really point all of your listeners to our recent central bank survey. It\u2019s a master class in being able to see what everybody\u2019s thinking, and there\u2019s a lot of effort that goes into it. But yes, \u2018central banks\u2019 is a key wild card to kind of think about.<\/p>\n<p>Essentially prior to the Russia-Ukraine conflict central banks were adding on average 400\u00a0tonnes a year, and since that we have been seeing on average anywhere from 1\u00a0100-1\u00a0000 tonnes.<\/p>\n<p>Read: Gold, oil soar on Russia-Ukraine conflict<\/p>\n<p>Now, while we don\u2019t necessarily expect \u2013 and we can\u2019t expect \u2013 a thousand tonnes of central bank buying <em>every<\/em> single year since 2022, as long as we still see central bank demand, in our analysis we think an additional 20-30\u00a0tonne increase in reserves above or around the long-term average, it roughly means 600\u00a0tonnes per year, which translates roughly into another 1% increase in the gold price.<\/p>\n<p>This is the way you can kind of think of every 20 to 30 tonnes. So a little long winded, but essentially we\u2019re saying is, as long as we see 600 tonnes or more on the central bank side, we think that\u2019s supportive for demand.<\/p>\n<p><strong>SIMON BROWN:<\/strong> A last question. Midterm elections in the US coming in November. Is there any sort of precedent or data in terms of potential impact?<\/p>\n<p><strong>TAYLOR BURNETTE: <\/strong>There\u2019s no real strong signal when it comes to US elections, other than the fact that when you do have a Democrat administration running you typically tend to see gold buying pick up in the physical area; bar and coin demand tends to pick up. That\u2019s really because in the US we tend to see more Republicans being gold buyers than Democrats.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s not to say that\u2019s not the case everywhere, but you tend to kind of have Republicans lean more towards being open to buying gold when they start to see a Democrat administration going through.<\/p>\n<p>Now, in this current situation, we\u2019re looking like it\u2019s going to be more depending on how things work. We have a split Congress, but we have a Republican in office. So far the data hasn\u2019t shown any real signs of pickup.<\/p>\n<p>Read:<br \/>Gold steadies as investors track war stalemate and stock moves<br \/>An ounce of gold is still an ounce of gold, and that\u2019s the point<br \/>Gold demand shows resilience despite market volatility<\/p>\n<p>In fact, so far during Trump\u2019s presidency we\u2019ve seen limited bar and coin buying in recent weeks. But again, you tend to see that here in the US and that\u2019s not the case obviously elsewhere. Again, it will be something to look at.<\/p>\n<p>But one thing I will flag \u2013 aside from just \u2018do midterms or do elections impact gold?\u2019 \u2013 a split Congress also can add volatility. And so if things don\u2019t get done, and if things aren\u2019t getting passed, and there\u2019s debates or things starting to deteriorate, or they trying to bring in power or wean in some of the power and direction that the administration\u2019s going, that to a degree can be viewed as a potential geopolitical risk for volatility that we could see.<\/p>\n<p>Well, we haven\u2019t seen any evidence that it directly impacts physical demand buying \u2013 again, unless it\u2019s during a Democrat administration or Democrat control. It could, though, still send signals throughout the market and things could change. And so it will be one of those things we\u2019ll have to watch and see.<\/p>\n<p>But again, it\u2019s one of those wild cards where it may have an impact, but it may be a nothing-burger.<\/p>\n<p>Read:<br \/>Investing through the Iran conflict market volatility<br \/>Store your gold underground<br \/>\u2018The bigger risk is that gold goes higher, not lower\u2019<\/p>\n<p><strong>SIMON BROWN:<\/strong> We\u2019ll find out in November.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ll leave it there. Taylor Burnette, research lead Americas, World Gold Council, appreciate the time.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>#Gold #politics #oil #shocks #Decoding #gold #markets #moves<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>You can also listen to this podcast on iono.fm here. SIMON BROWN: I\u2019m chatting now with Taylor Burnette. He is a research lead: Americas, for the World Gold Council. 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